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Coyotes at Avalanche
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
1
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
FinalTV ALT2, SCRIPPS·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Utah Mammoth 4-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Valeri Nichushkin's goal at 1:27 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals were close — ARI 1.8, COL 2.0; shots on goal were ARI 25, COL 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Connor Ingram stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 2.0 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Bowen Byram (1 G), 2. Fredrik Olofsson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Alexandar Georgiev (24 saves, .960).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    B. Byram1 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    F. Olofsson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    A. Georgiev24 saves, .960

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ARIARI0120518125
COLCOL1831107426

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    B. Byram(6)
    R. Colton (8)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:37

2nd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(16)
    N. MacKinnon (36), D. Toews (14)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    1:27
  2. COL
    J. Manson(3)
    F. Olofsson (5), L. O'Connor (5)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 ptsVideo
    0-3
    13:29
  3. COL
    F. Olofsson(3)
    A. Cogliano (7), L. O'Connor (6)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +2 ptsVideo
    0-4
    19:52

3rd period

  1. ARI
    A. Kerfoot(4)PPG
    M. Carcone (5), S. Durzi (11)
    tip-inxG 0.15Video
    1-4
    16:56

Penalties

ARI 9 PIM·COL 11 PIM

1st

  • 6:31ARIClayton Keller · High stickingdrawn by Jonathan Drouin2 min
  • 12:55COLNathan MacKinnon · High stickingdrawn by Jack McBain2 min

2nd

  • 7:52ARILawson Crouse · Fightingdrawn by Miles Wood5 min
  • 7:52COLMiles Wood · Fightingdrawn by Lawson Crouse5 min
  • 16:44ARIMichael Kesselring · Holdingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min

3rd

  • 7:12COLValeri Nichushkin · Trippingdrawn by Troy Stecher2 min
  • 16:48COLMiles Wood · Trippingdrawn by Troy Stecher2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalARI goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin, 2nd 1:27 — COL 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.20N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.15S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.14F. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.14R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.11B. Byram · Goal · xG 0.10J. Manson · Goal · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.09J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.09L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.08J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.05C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.05J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.00C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.00R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.00J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.00
COL4 G · 2.0 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsCOL
1.81 G
All situations
4 G2.0
1.30 G
Even strength
4 G1.5
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 63 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI46%54%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.75 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsCOL
25
Shots on goal
26
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/3
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
11
23
Hits
23
9
Blocked shots
6
3
Giveaways
3
11
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24M. DumbaD000-100.00320—23:37
50S. DurziD011-220.10020—23:27
51T. StecherD000-110.01200—22:32
33T. DermottD000-200.00110—21:00
15A. KerfootC101-220.210001719:24
5M. KesselringD000-210.02312—18:18
9C. KellerR000-310.01002—17:58
8N. SchmaltzC000-110.03000017:35
63M. MaccelliL000-110.09000—17:14
17N. BjugstadC000-120.080106416:56
67L. CrouseL000030.40105—15:15
92L. CooleyC000-120.234006014:25
16J. ZuckerL000-220.10000—13:58
53M. CarconeL011020.04010—12:45
38L. O'BrienC000-110.12700012:03
22J. McBainC000020.101003811:24
12Z. SanfordL000020.23100—10:59
90J. MoserD000000.00010—07:10
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39C. Ingram(L)26224.8461.96-2.0460:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).