Capitals at Islanders 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Washington Capitals

▸4

New York Islanders

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Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the New York Islanders 4-1. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nic Dowd's goal at 13:05 of the second period, which took the Capitals' chances from 47% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 4.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were WSH 28, NYI 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Hunter Shepard stopped 36 of 37 (.973), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 24 of 27 (.889). Three stars: 1. Hunter Shepard (36 saves, .973), 2. Aliaksei Protas (1 G), 3. Alex Ovechkin (2 G).

Three stars

★
H. Shepard36 saves, .973
★★
A. Protas1 G
★★★
A. Ovechkin2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	17	215	16	428
NYI	112	09	016	137

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

A. Ovechkin(3)
E. Kuznetsov (5)
wristxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
9:18
A. Romanov(1)
B. Horvat (6)
wristxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
1-1
19:17

2nd period

N. Dowd(1)
N. Aube-Kubel (2), J. Carlson (7)
batxG 0.87win prob +20 ptsVideo
2-1
13:05
A. Protas(1)
M. Phillips (3), C. McMichael (3)
wristxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-1
19:20

3rd period

A. Ovechkin(4)EN
B. Malenstyn (1), R. Sandin (3)
wristxG 0.57Video
4-1
19:57

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

19:58Alexander Alexeyev · Holdingdrawn by Anders Lee2 min

2nd

7:17Sebastian Aho · Trippingdrawn by Sonny Milano2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Nic Dowd, 2nd 13:05 — WSH 47% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.7 xG · 64 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 4.0 xG · 37 att NYI

1 G · 2.7 xG · 64 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.03 G
All situations: 1 G2.7; 2.13 G
Even strength: 1 G2.5; 0.50 G
Power play: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

46%54%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 2.72

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

28
Shots on goal: 37; 50%
Faceoffs: 50%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 20
Hits: 23; 32
Blocked shots: 11; 11
Giveaways: 11; 13
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Washington Capitals skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
38R. SandinD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	0	4	0	—	26:24
74J. CarlsonD	0	1	1	+2	2	0.04	1	3	0	—	26:23
3N. JensenD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	1	4	0	—	22:15
46L. JohansenD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.02	0	5	0	—	20:11
92E. KuznetsovC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.12	0	0	0	43	19:39
8A. OvechkinL	2	0	2	+2	5	1.14	4	2	0	—	18:09
43T. WilsonR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.73	3	1	0	—	17:57
17D. StromeC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	0	1	0	55	17:31
47B. MalenstynL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.15	5	5	0	—	16:54
26N. DowdC	1	0	1	+2	3	0.91	0	1	0	59	16:28
96N. Aube-KubelR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.23	2	2	0	—	15:35
77T. OshieR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.31	1	0	0	—	14:25
27A. AlexeyevD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	2	—	13:52
15S. MilanoL	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	0	0	—	12:26
45M. PhillipsR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	10:26
24C. McMichaelL	0	1	1	0	2	0.15	1	1	0	—	10:22
21A. ProtasL	1	0	1	+2	1	0.12	0	0	0	—	09:50
4H. Haman AktellD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	09:13

Washington Capitals goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31H. Shepard(W)	37	36	1	.973	2.74	+1.74	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Washington Capitals at New York Islanders

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score