Islanders at Capitals 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Islanders

▸3

Washington Capitals

FinalTV MNMT, MSGSN·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Washington Capitals 3-0. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Simon Holmstrom's goal at 10:41 of the first period, which took the Islanders' chances from 60% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 4.3 to 2.8; shots on goal were NYI 21, WSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 84% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 32 of 32 (1.000), 4.3 goals saved above expected; Darcy Kuemper stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Semyon Varlamov (32 saves, 1.000), 2. Brock Nelson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Connor McMichael.

Three stars

★
S. Varlamov32 saves, 1.000
★★
B. Nelson1 G, 1 A
★★★
C. McMichael

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	22	17	012	321
WSH	09	013	010	032

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

R. Pulock(1)
B. Nelson (2), K. Palmieri (5)
wristxG 0.02win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-0
0:22
S. Holmstrom(2)
H. Fasching (1), J. Pageau (3)
snapxG 0.21win prob +16 ptsVideo
2-0
10:41

2nd period

B. Nelson(5)
P. Engvall (5), S. Mayfield (1)
wristxG 0.08win prob +10 ptsVideo
3-0
11:15

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

1:22Adam Pelech · Hookingdrawn by Aliaksei Protas2 min
13:03Sebastian Aho · Slashingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
19:57Anthony Mantha · Holdingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

2nd

1:22Mathew Barzal · Hookingdrawn by Connor McMichael2 min
16:49Rasmus Sandin · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Palmieri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

Biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom, 1st 10:41 — NYI 60% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 4.3 xG · 58 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.8 xG · 35 att WSH

0 G · 4.3 xG · 58 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.83 G
All situations: 0 G4.3; 1.83 G
Even strength: 0 G3.2; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G1.0; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

16%84%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.96 – 4.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 32; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 27
Hits: 14; 23
Blocked shots: 6; 12
Giveaways: 12; 4
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	1	3	0	—	26:31
28A. RomanovD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.03	0	4	0	—	25:16
6R. PulockD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.12	1	4	0	—	24:44
24S. MayfieldD	0	1	1	+2	3	0.03	1	3	0	—	21:21
14B. HorvatC	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	1	0	50	19:22
13M. BarzalC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.07	1	1	2	0	18:56
29B. NelsonC	1	1	2	+2	2	0.33	0	0	0	53	18:00
21K. PalmieriC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.00	0	0	0	0	17:17
25S. AhoD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	2	—	16:41
18P. EngvallL	0	1	1	+2	2	0.58	1	0	0	—	15:49
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	0	1	0.69	1	2	0	—	14:46
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	3	0	0	54	14:34
44J. PageauC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.50	5	1	0	60	13:36
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	3	0	0	—	13:24
10S. HolmstromR	1	0	1	+1	1	0.21	0	1	0	—	11:53
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	1	0	—	09:36
20H. FaschingR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	08:50
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	2	—	03:24

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
40S. Varlamov(W)	32	32	0	1.000	4.27	+4.27	60:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Washington Capitals

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

Box score