Islanders at Hurricanes 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

Carolina Hurricanes

▸2

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Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 2-1. The Islanders scored first; the Hurricanes answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Martinook's goal at 2:31 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.2 to 1.3; shots on goal were NYI 22, CAR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 21 of 22 (.955). Three stars: 1. Jordan Martinook (1 G), 2. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1 G), 3. Frederik Andersen (21 saves, .955).

Three stars

★
J. Martinook1 G
★★
J. Kotkaniemi1 G
★★★
F. Andersen21 saves, .955

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	17	07	08	122
CAR	015	113	17	235

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Pageau(13)
P. Engvall (12), S. Mayfield (17)
snapxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
1-0
17:33

2nd period

J. Kotkaniemi(15)
J. Puljujarvi (10), S. Noesen (21)
snapxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
1-1
9:27

3rd period

J. Martinook(12)
J. Slavin (19)
wristxG 0.09win prob +25 pts
1-2
2:31

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

12:47Paul Stastny · Holdingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

3rd

5:04Noah Dobson · Boardingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min
15:24Sebastian Aho · Cross checkingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
17:31Sebastian Aho · Hookingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CAR

100%

Biggest swing: Jordan Martinook, 3rd 2:31 — CAR 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 3.2 xG · 50 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.3 xG · 34 att CAR

2 G · 3.2 xG · 50 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.31 G
All situations: 2 G3.2; 0.91 G
Even strength: 2 G2.2; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

24%76%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.33 – 2.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

22
Shots on goal: 35; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 18
Hits: 11; 17
Blocked shots: 13; 6
Giveaways: 7; 2
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	1	3	0	—	25:28
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	2	1	0	—	21:22
24S. MayfieldD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	0	4	0	—	20:08
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.09	0	0	2	—	19:52
14B. HorvatC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.25	0	0	0	31	17:40
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	0	1	0	47	17:03
44J. PageauC	1	0	1	0	4	0.26	2	1	0	50	16:54
25S. AhoD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.05	0	0	2	—	16:49
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.07	0	1	0	—	16:18
21K. PalmieriC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.18	1	0	0	0	15:51
18P. EngvallL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.18	0	0	0	—	14:56
11Z. PariseL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.06	1	0	0	—	14:55
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	2	2	0	67	14:30
4S. BolducD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	13:50
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	0	1	0	—	13:36
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	4	0	0	—	13:05
15C. ClutterbuckR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	1	0	—	12:19
20H. FaschingR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	12:13

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(L)	35	33	2	.943	2.71	+0.71	59:11

Season series

CAR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score