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Hurricanes at Islanders
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
New York Islanders
2
FinalTV BSSO, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 5-2. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 16:40 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were CAR 26, NYI 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 29 of 31 (.935); Ilya Sorokin stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sebastian Aho (3 G), 2. Jordan Staal (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brock Nelson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Aho3 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    J. Staal1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    B. Nelson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR2711029526
NYINYI2807016231

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(12)
    J. Chatfield (3), B. Burns (24)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    0:44
  2. CAR
    J. Fast(6)
    J. Staal (9)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    3:52
  3. NYI
    S. Holmstrom(2)
    A. Lee (16)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    14:02
  4. NYI
    B. Nelson(17)
    Unassisted
    wrap-aroundxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    15:42

2nd period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(15)
    T. Teravainen (16)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +22 pts
    3-2
    16:40

3rd period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(16)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
    4-2
    7:09
  2. CAR
    S. Aho(17)EN
    T. Teravainen (17)
    pokexG 0.60
    5-2
    19:38

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·NYI 10 PIM

1st

  • 7:13CARBrady Skjei · Slashingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 11:13NYIScott Mayfield · Cross checkingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

2nd

  • 3:26CARJordan Martinook · Trippingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 13:14NYIMatt Martin · Slashingdrawn by Dylan Coghlan2 min
  • 14:10CARAndrei Svechnikov · Roughingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 14:10CARAndrei Svechnikov · Roughingdrawn by Alexander Romanov2 min
  • 14:10NYIScott Mayfield · Roughingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 14:10NYIAlexander Romanov · Cross checkingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 17:48NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau · Hookingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalCAR goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, 2nd 16:40 — CAR 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.28A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.19A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.19S. Holmstrom · Goal · xG 0.14M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.12B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.11M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Parise · Missed · xG 0.08S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.07M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.07A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.06B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.04A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.04B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.04S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.04M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.04M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.04C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.03N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Romanov · Missed · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Parise · Missed · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.00B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI2 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNYI
3.04 G
All situations
2 G2.3
2.04 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR53%47%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.39 – 2.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNYI
26
Shots on goal
31
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/3
Power play
0/2
8
Penalty minutes
10
16
Hits
24
15
Blocked shots
20
13
Giveaways
18
8
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8B. BurnsD011+330.18010—24:06
76B. SkjeiD000000.03012—21:50
22B. PesceD000010.02110—20:48
5J. ChatfieldD011+410.02010—20:24
11J. StaalC112+140.324104819:04
26P. StastnyC000+110.210206717:36
48J. MartinookL000+120.41212—17:28
86T. TeravainenC022+200.0100010017:18
88M. NecasC000000.001002516:58
71J. FastR101+110.14130—16:25
20S. AhoC303+330.803203615:29
24S. JarvisR000+120.22110—15:08
44C. de HaanD000-120.03010—14:43
37A. SvechnikovR000010.02104—14:18
82J. KotkaniemiC000-110.170002512:47
15D. CoghlanD000030.16000—12:06
23S. NoesenR000000.08200—11:44
21D. StepanC000010.220005708:06
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)31292.9352.30+0.3059:42

Season series

CAR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).