Hurricanes at Islanders 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Carolina Hurricanes

▸3

New York Islanders

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Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 3-0. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Paul Stastny's goal at 7:06 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.4 to 1.0; shots on goal were CAR 29, NYI 16. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 16 of 16 (1.000), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jordan Staal (1 G), 2. Pyotr Kochetkov (16 saves, 1.000), 3. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (1 G).

Three stars

★
J. Staal1 G
★★
P. Kochetkov16 saves, 1.000
★★★
J. Kotkaniemi1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CAR	09	17	213	329
NYI	07	03	06	016

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

P. Stastny(1)
A. Svechnikov (11), B. Skjei (6)
wristxG 0.40win prob +18 pts
1-0
7:06

3rd period

J. Kotkaniemi(3)
B. Burns (16), T. Teravainen (8)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
2-0
4:05
J. Staal(7)
J. Martinook (7), S. Noesen (9)
wristxG 0.07win prob +5 pts
3-0
8:49

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

6:02Brett Pesce · Interferencedrawn by Anders Lee2 min
6:47Brent Burns · Interferencedrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
7:16Anders Lee · Interferencedrawn by Jaccob Slavin2 min
16:49Zach Parise · Holdingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

2nd

2:00Seth Jarvis · Interferencedrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

Biggest swing: Paul Stastny, 2nd 7:06 — CAR 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.0 xG · 22 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.4 xG · 46 att NYI

0 G · 1.0 xG · 22 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.43 G
All situations: 0 G1.0; 1.93 G
Even strength: 0 G0.8; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

78%22%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.37 – 1.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

29
Shots on goal: 16; 57%
Faceoffs: 43%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 19
Hits: 26; 17
Blocked shots: 31; 3
Giveaways: 12; 2
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Carolina Hurricanes skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
74J. SlavinD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.10	0	3	0	—	23:07
8B. BurnsD	0	1	1	+2	2	0.10	0	1	2	—	23:03
22B. PesceD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	1	2	2	—	21:33
76B. SkjeiD	0	1	1	+1	5	0.13	0	0	0	—	20:59
86T. TeravainenC	0	1	1	+1	5	0.38	0	1	0	0	20:02
37A. SvechnikovR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.40	2	0	0	—	18:29
82J. KotkaniemiC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.18	3	0	0	63	18:12
88M. NecasC	0	0	0	+2	3	0.08	0	0	0	50	18:05
48J. MartinookL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.16	0	0	0	100	17:45
11J. StaalC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.07	5	0	0	55	17:24
23S. NoesenR	0	1	1	+1	2	0.07	3	0	0	—	15:34
26P. StastnyC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.39	0	0	0	50	14:39
5J. ChatfieldD	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	4	0	—	13:58
24S. JarvisR	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	3	2	2	—	13:38
18J. DruryC	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	0	0	0	80	12:01
44C. de HaanD	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	0	4	0	—	11:17
21D. StepanC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	08:48
42M. LajoieD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	0	0	—	05:26

Carolina Hurricanes goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
52P. Kochetkov(W)	16	16	0	1.000	1.04	+1.04	60:00

Season series

CAR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score