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Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV ALT, BSSWX·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 5-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Logan O'Connor's goal at 6:04 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 70% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.4 to 2.4; shots on goal were DAL 28, COL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 27 of 30 (.900), 1.0 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 3 A), 3. Logan O'Connor (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    L. O'Connor1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL01017111228
COLCOL19211212532

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(33)
    M. Rantanen (41)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:54

2nd period

  1. COL
    L. O'Connor(9)
    A. Cogliano (9)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    6:04
  2. DAL
    T. Seguin(19)PPG
    E. Dadonov (23), J. Robertson (54)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    11:54
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(34)PPG
    M. Rantanen (42), J. Compher (34)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    19:47

3rd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(17)EN
    M. Rantanen (43)
    tip-inxG 0.87win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    16:52
  2. DAL
    J. Pavelski(24)PPG
    J. Robertson (55), M. Heiskanen (55)
    tip-inxG 0.11
    2-4
    18:44
  3. COL
    M. Rantanen(49)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.55
    2-5
    19:48

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·COL 10 PIM

1st

  • 13:27COLBowen Byram · Holdingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min
  • 19:31COLMikko Rantanen · Boardingdrawn by Joel Kiviranta2 min

2nd

  • 3:20DALJani Hakanpää · Hookingdrawn by Matt Nieto2 min
  • 10:04COLJ.T. Compher · Broken stick2 min
  • 16:02COLJ.T. Compher · Trippingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 18:54DALserved by E. Dadonov · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 3:41DALJani Hakanpää · Holdingdrawn by Denis Malgin2 min
  • 18:15COLBowen Byram · Trippingdrawn by Max Domi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Logan O'Connor, 2nd 6:04 — COL 70% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.87M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.55C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.12L. O'Connor · Goal · xG 0.12V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.11M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08A. Newhook · Missed · xG 0.08L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.07M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.06L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04M. Nieto · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.03D. Malgin · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 3.4 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
2.42 G
All situations
3 G3.4
1.90 G
Even strength
2 G1.3
0.52 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL58%42%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 1.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCOL
28
Shots on goal
32
44%
Faceoffs
56%
2/5
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
32
Hits
29
13
Blocked shots
12
5
Giveaways
4
9
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD011-300.00010—26:00
21J. RobertsonL022-250.29110—21:08
20R. SuterD000-110.04510—20:14
24R. HintzC000-200.030008020:07
23E. LindellD000-120.21130—19:53
16J. PavelskiC101-220.421004019:11
2J. HakanpääD000-110.02524—18:23
91T. SeguinC101-120.29200017:01
6C. MillerD000030.08220—16:59
14J. BennL000-410.125103016:31
18M. DomiC000020.052006715:22
12R. FaksaC000010.052005614:17
63E. DadonovL011-320.05100—14:02
10T. DellandreaC000010.09210013:30
53W. JohnstonC000-210.230006712:57
25J. KivirantaL000010.33100—11:48
11L. GlendeningC000020.101004310:46
44J. HanleyD000010.01110—09:37
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)30273.9001.97-1.0357:21

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).