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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
3
Dallas Stars
▸7
FinalTV SN, SN1·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 7-3. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joe Pavelski's goal at 17:42 of the first period, which took the Stars' chances from 68% to 83%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.6, DAL 2.4; shots on goal were COL 35, DAL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 14 of 19 (.737), 3.8 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 32 of 35 (.914). Three stars: 1. Joe Pavelski (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mason Marchment (1 G), 3. Jamie Benn (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Marchment1 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Benn1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL111010214335
DALDAL31221027729

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(36)
    R. Hintz (28), J. Pavelski (40)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:33
  2. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(9)
    J. Benn (30)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    10:09
  3. COL
    S. Girard(5)
    A. Newhook (11)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    16:03
  4. DAL
    J. Pavelski(15)
    J. Robertson (42), R. Hintz (29)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    17:42

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Marchment(10)
    R. Suter (14), T. Seguin (24)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    5:25
  2. DAL
    R. Faksa(8)
    E. Lindell (11)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +3 pts
    1-5
    11:39

3rd period

  1. DAL
    W. Johnston(15)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.13
    1-6
    4:15
  2. COL
    A. Cogliano(10)
    S. Girard (21), L. O'Connor (14)
    backhandxG 0.25
    2-6
    11:49
  3. COL
    E. Rodrigues(12)PPG
    A. Newhook (12), S. Girard (22)
    slapxG 0.09
    3-6
    16:19
  4. DAL
    J. Robertson(37)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.45
    3-7
    16:53

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:17COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Jani Hakanpää2 min
  • 4:17DALJani Hakanpää · High stickingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 4:17COLMikko Rantanen · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Jani Hakanpää2 min
  • 11:42COLLars Eller · Hookingdrawn by Fredrik Olofsson2 min

2nd

  • 19:57COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Jani Hakanpää2 min

3rd

  • 14:31DALJamie Benn · Chargingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 14:31COLLogan O'Connor · Roughingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min
  • 14:31DALJamie Benn · Roughingdrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 19:01DALMax Domi · Slashingdrawn by Denis Malgin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Joe Pavelski, 1st 17:42 — DAL 68% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.44E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.23J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.15R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.15J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.13W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.12J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10E. Dadonov · Missed · xG 0.10J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.09M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.09R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.08J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.08M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.07R. Faksa · Goal · xG 0.06J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.05M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.05J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.03M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.03J. Hakanpää · On goal · xG 0.03M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.02E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · Missed · xG 0.01R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01R. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.00M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL7 G · 2.4 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
2.63 G
All situations
6 G2.4
2.02 G
Even strength
6 G1.6
0.51 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL62%38%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.62 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
35
Shots on goal
29
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/2
Power play
0/3
10
Penalty minutes
8
19
Hits
23
17
Blocked shots
20
3
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-110.10020—22:27
7D. ToewsD000-140.12020—21:38
4B. ByramD000-230.26220—21:07
49S. GirardD123-120.06410—20:05
37J. CompherL000-110.020104418:48
29N. MacKinnonC000-360.270004218:46
3J. JohnsonD000-200.00410—18:33
62A. LehkonenL000-210.06210—17:46
96M. RantanenR000-120.27006—17:26
17B. HuntD000-220.24000—15:43
11A. CoglianoC101020.33210014:52
20L. EllerC000010.050224614:43
81D. MalginC000-220.13120014:37
25L. O'ConnorR011030.15212—13:14
18A. NewhookC022-220.240005012:26
9E. RodriguesC101-220.25110012:24
83M. NietoL000-210.07000—10:55
59B. MeyersC000-200.001006008:54
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(L)19145.7371.17-3.8331:39
30K. Kinkaid981.8890.80-0.2027:57

Season series

COL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).