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Islanders at Penguins
NHL

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸4
Pittsburgh Penguins
3
Final/OTTV ATTSN-PT, MSGSN·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 in overtime, Brock Nelson scoring at 2:13. The Islanders came back from two goals down. The Penguins led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 2:13 of overtime, which took the Islanders' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.2 to 2.5; shots on goal were NYI 28, PIT 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Tristan Jarry stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Lee (2 G), 2. Brock Nelson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jake Guentzel (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    A. Lee2 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    B. Nelson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NYINYI170621312428
PITPIT21311101002336

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee(25)PPG
    B. Horvat (27), K. Palmieri (11)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +9 pts
    1-0
    5:23
  2. PIT
    J. Guentzel(26)
    M. Pettersson (20), S. Crosby (49)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    11:07
  3. PIT
    J. Zucker(22)
    E. Malkin (44), J. Petry (20)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    18:24

2nd period

  1. PIT
    J. Archibald(5)
    B. Dumoulin (15), J. Petry (21)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    10:49

3rd period

  1. NYI
    H. Fasching(5)
    C. Cizikas (13), S. Aho (14)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +9 pts
    2-3
    14:31
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(26)
    N. Dobson (26), B. Nelson (35)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +42 pts
    3-3
    18:45

Overtime

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(28)
    I. Sorokin (1)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    2:13

Penalties

NYI 8 PIM·PIT 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:44PITEvgeni Malkin · Interferencedrawn by Pierre Engvall2 min
  • 15:29NYIScott Mayfield · Interferencedrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min

2nd

  • 3:42PITserved by D. Heinen · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 7:29NYIScott Mayfield · High stickingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 11:48NYIScott Mayfield · Trippingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min

3rd

  • 3:39PITJan Rutta · Elbowingdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min
  • 5:19NYIOtto Koivula · Roughingdrawn by Josh Archibald2 min
  • 5:19PITJosh Archibald · Roughingdrawn by Otto Koivula2 min
  • 9:47PITDrew O'Connor · Hookingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalNYI goalFinal: PIT 0%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, OT 2:13 — NYI 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.22M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.20R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.18M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.16J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.15S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.15J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.15D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.13D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.12R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.11J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.11J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.09S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.08J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.08J. Archibald · Goal · xG 0.08D. Heinen · Missed · xG 0.07J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.07D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.07J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.06B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.06B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.06J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.05J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.05K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.05J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.04M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.04D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.04D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.04S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.04J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.03J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.03E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.03K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.02R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.02B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.01J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01D. Kulikov · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT3 G · 3.2 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsPIT
2.54 G
All situations
3 G3.2
1.33 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI39%61%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.52 – 3.17

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsPIT
28
Shots on goal
36
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/4
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
10
35
Hits
40
10
Blocked shots
26
8
Giveaways
7
6
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3A. PelechD000-110.02120—24:25
14B. HorvatC011030.212006223:17
29B. NelsonC112+120.241206422:59
8N. DobsonD011+120.06000—22:21
25S. AhoD011+230.18210—21:09
53C. CizikasC011-110.113103621:03
21K. PalmieriC011050.46400020:26
24S. MayfieldD000-110.01706—19:14
6R. PulockD000-100.01200—18:45
27A. LeeL202+130.39210—18:31
11Z. PariseL000020.36300—18:00
12J. BaileyR000+100.01010—13:54
20H. FaschingR101010.14100—13:48
28A. RomanovD000-110.01120—12:58
17M. MartinL000-120.24500—11:29
18P. EngvallL000-100.00100—08:23
10S. HolmstromR000000.00000—08:05
36O. KoivulaL000010.09002—03:46
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(W)36333.9173.20+0.2060:19

Season series

NYI leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).