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New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers

FinalTV NBCSP, MSGSN2·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Philadelphia Flyers 2-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mathew Barzal's goal at 8:18 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.9 to 1.8; shots on goal were NYI 30, PHI 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 25 of 26 (.962), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Carter Hart stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mathew Barzal (1 G), 2. Kyle Palmieri (1 G), 3. Semyon Varlamov (25 saves, .962).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Barzal1 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    K. Palmieri1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    S. Varlamov25 saves, .962

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI1151807230
PHIPHI0711108126

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    J. Bailey (14), S. Aho (9)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    17:07

2nd period

  1. NYI
    N. Dobson (18), B. Nelson (28)
    deflectedxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    8:18
  2. PHI
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    10:39

Penalties

NYI 4 PIM·PHI 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:14PHIKevin Hayes · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:28PHIScott Laughton · Interferencedrawn by Zach Parise2 min

2nd

  • 1:13NYISebastian Aho · Holdingdrawn by Owen Tippett2 min
  • 12:07PHIKevin Hayes · Hookingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min

3rd

  • 7:55NYIKyle Palmieri · Slashingdrawn by Owen Tippett2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalNYI goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Mathew Barzal, 2nd 8:18 — NYI 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.19O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.17N. Deslauriers · Missed · xG 0.13N. Cates · Missed · xG 0.12O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.11S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.11K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.09W. Allison · On goal · xG 0.08K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.08N. Deslauriers · Goal · xG 0.06J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.05R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.05R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.04T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.04K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.04O. Tippett · Missed · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.03T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.03K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.03K. Hayes · Missed · xG 0.02M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.02W. Allison · Missed · xG 0.02T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.02P. Brown · Missed · xG 0.02J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.02K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.01C. York · Missed · xG 0.01N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.01O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.01M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.01M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.01T. Sanheim · Missed · xG 0.01K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.00I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI1 G · 1.8 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsPHI
2.92 G
All situations
1 G1.8
2.61 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI69%31%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.87 – 1.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsPHI
30
Shots on goal
26
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
27
Hits
32
19
Blocked shots
17
6
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3A. PelechD000010.09240—23:13
24S. MayfieldD000-120.02030—21:33
28A. RomanovD000-130.04320—20:35
13M. BarzalC101+120.37000020:27
6R. PulockD000020.02110—19:28
14B. HorvatC000040.542205419:08
29B. NelsonC011+120.330202517:53
12J. BaileyR011010.06110—17:36
8N. DobsonD011+110.10120—16:34
11Z. PariseL000-130.37210—16:15
44J. PageauC000000.152106715:32
27A. LeeL000+100.03500—15:25
21K. PalmieriC101020.14002015:03
25S. AhoD011+120.10102—14:40
53C. CizikasC000-120.292006713:24
17M. MartinL000020.02400—11:17
20H. FaschingR000010.11100—09:13
10S. HolmstromR000-100.16000—08:44
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)26251.9621.83+0.8360:00

Season series

NYI leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).