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Avalanche at Wild
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
1
Minnesota Wild
▸4
FinalTV ALT, BSWIX·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-1. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyson Jost's goal at 4:12 of the first period, which took the Wild's chances from 66% to 79%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.1, MIN 2.2; shots on goal were COL 28, MIN 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Pavel Francouz stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.2 goals below expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Kirill Kaprizov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Marc-Andre Fleury (27 saves, .964), 3. Tyson Jost (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    K. Kaprizov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    M. Fleury27 saves, .964
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    T. Jost1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0101909128
MINMIN2111615422

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    J. Greenway(9)
    M. Foligno (19)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:58
  2. MIN
    T. Jost(8)
    K. Kaprizov (61), J. Merrill (16)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    4:12

2nd period

  1. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(47)
    R. Hartman (31), J. Spurgeon (30)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    3:46
  2. COL
    N. Kadri(28)
    M. Rantanen (56)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    5:38

3rd period

  1. MIN
    J. Greenway(10)EN
    J. Middleton (10), M. Dumba (20)
    wristxG 0.41
    1-4
    19:28

Penalties

COL 32 PIM·MIN 27 PIM

1st

  • 2:14COLLogan O'Connor · Boardingdrawn by Dmitry Kulikov2 min
  • 2:14MINBrandon Duhaime · Instigatordrawn by Logan O'Connor2 min
  • 2:14COLLogan O'Connor · Fightingdrawn by Brandon Duhaime5 min
  • 2:14MINBrandon Duhaime · Fightingdrawn by Logan O'Connor5 min
  • 2:14MINBrandon Duhaime · Instigator misconductdrawn by Logan O'Connor10 min
  • 5:28COLKurtis MacDermid · Kneeingdrawn by Marcus Foligno5 min
  • 5:28COLKurtis MacDermid · Game misconductdrawn by Marcus Foligno10 min
  • 6:41COLAndrew Cogliano · Slashingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 6:41MINJoel Eriksson Ek · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 12:06MINDmitry Kulikov · High stickingdrawn by Nico Sturm2 min
  • 16:22MINJordan Greenway · Slashingdrawn by Jacob MacDonald2 min
  • 18:40COLArtturi Lehkonen · Holding the stickdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 19:25COLJosh Manson · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min

2nd

  • 9:31COLAndrew Cogliano · Slashingdrawn by Matt Boldy2 min
  • 19:39MINNick Bjugstad · Trippingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min

3rd

  • 4:31MINMathew Dumba · Trippingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 6:00COLSamuel Girard · Holdingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalCOL goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Tyson Jost, 1st 4:12 — MIN 66% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Greenway · Goal · xG 0.41K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.16J. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.13T. Jost · Goal · xG 0.12K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.11J. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.10J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.10F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.09K. Fiala · On goal · xG 0.09K. Kaprizov · Goal · xG 0.08N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.07K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.07J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.07M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.07K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.05M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.05M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.05J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.03N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.03N. Bjugstad · Missed · xG 0.03J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Goal · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.02J. Merrill · Missed · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.01B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.01F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN4 G · 2.2 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsMIN
2.11 G
All situations
3 G2.2
1.41 G
Even strength
3 G0.8
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL54%46%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.06 – 1.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsMIN
28
Shots on goal
22
43%
Faceoffs
57%
0/4
Power play
0/5
32
Penalty minutes
27
14
Hits
26
12
Blocked shots
15
7
Giveaways
3
2
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
49S. GirardD000-330.21102—25:48
6E. JohnsonD000-120.13260—23:36
3J. JohnsonD000010.03120—22:27
37J. CompherL000-310.080004421:57
96M. RantanenR011-140.5700010021:04
91N. KadriC101-120.170004420:54
42J. MansonD000-220.07212—20:08
26J. MacDonaldD000+160.41100—19:41
95A. BurakovskyL000-200.04100—17:32
62A. LehkonenL000-300.00132—16:42
18A. NewhookC000-210.080005013:23
78N. SturmC000000.001004012:14
43D. HelmC000020.050005012:10
16N. Aube-KubelR000020.06000—10:44
59B. MeyersC000010.11000010:25
25L. O'ConnorR000010.00107—09:24
11A. CoglianoC000+100.06304009:12
56K. MacDermidL000000.000015—01:01
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39P. Francouz(L)21183.8571.84-1.1658:38

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).