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Avalanche at Wild
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Minnesota Wild
▸3
Final/OTTV ALT, BSNX·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 in overtime, Kevin Fiala scoring at 0:15. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Wild led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kevin Fiala's goal at 0:15 of overtime, which took the Wild's chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.9 to 2.3; shots on goal were COL 42, MIN 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Darcy Kuemper stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.7 goals below expected; Cam Talbot stopped 40 of 42 (.952), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Cam Talbot (40 saves, .952), 2. Ryan Hartman (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mats Zuccarello (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    C. Talbot40 saves, .952
  2. ★★
    MIN
    R. Hartman1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    M. Zuccarello3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL01401421400242
MINMIN081611411329

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(36)PPG
    R. Hartman (23), M. Zuccarello (46)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +21 pts
    0-1
    18:07

3rd period

  1. COL
    N. Kadri(26)
    J. Compher (10), D. Toews (35)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    6:21
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(33)PPG
    A. Burakovsky (29), N. Kadri (55)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +25 pts
    2-1
    10:03
  3. MIN
    R. Hartman(27)
    M. Zuccarello (47), M. Dumba (19)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +38 pts
    2-2
    14:33

Overtime

  1. MIN
    K. Fiala(22)PPG
    M. Zuccarello (48), J. Eriksson Ek (16)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    0:15

Penalties

COL 13 PIM·MIN 11 PIM

1st

  • 10:57MINJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Jack Johnson2 min
  • 18:16COLCale Makar · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Hartman2 min

2nd

  • 16:30COLJ.T. Compher · Holdingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min

3rd

  • 0:45MINJordan Greenway · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 5:46MINMathew Dumba · Fightingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon5 min
  • 5:46COLNathan MacKinnon · Fightingdrawn by Mathew Dumba5 min
  • 7:13COLErik Johnson · Interferencedrawn by Jonas Brodin2 min
  • 10:01MINJake Middleton · Cross checkingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 19:34COLErik Johnson · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalCOL goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Kevin Fiala, OT 0:15 — MIN 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.24R. Hartman · Goal · xG 0.14K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.14R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.14R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.13J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.12K. Kaprizov · Goal · xG 0.11N. Deslauriers · On goal · xG 0.11M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.11M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.10M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.09M. Foligno · Missed · xG 0.07K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.07B. Duhaime · Missed · xG 0.06M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.05T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.05J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.04M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.04J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.04J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.03M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.03J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.03K. Fiala · Goal · xG 0.03T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.02N. Deslauriers · Missed · xG 0.01M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Deslauriers · Missed · xG 0.01F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Duhaime · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spurgeon · Missed · xG 0.00F. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.00J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.00B. Duhaime · Missed · xG 0.00
MIN3 G · 2.3 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsMIN
2.92 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.81 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
0.91 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL59%41%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.79 – 2.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsMIN
42
Shots on goal
29
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/3
Power play
2/4
13
Penalty minutes
11
35
Hits
35
15
Blocked shots
16
3
Giveaways
7
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000+160.27212—28:54
7D. ToewsD011050.08030—28:05
13V. NichushkinR000-120.50010—21:51
96M. RantanenR101-150.302002520:01
29N. MacKinnonC000-130.131052219:48
3J. JohnsonD000000.02430—19:18
91N. KadriC112+130.203006418:08
42J. MansonD000-110.03500—17:50
37J. CompherL011+110.030027516:04
6E. JohnsonD000020.03444—15:57
95A. BurakovskyL011+130.11000—14:44
78N. SturmC000010.012005613:41
18A. NewhookC000020.370003312:54
25L. O'ConnorR000010.17000—10:59
16N. Aube-KubelR000040.46400—10:11
43D. HelmC000020.051204309:27
11A. CoglianoC000010.08500009:26
56K. MacDermidL000000.00210—07:38
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Kuemper(O)29263.8972.28-0.7260:01

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).