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Hurricanes at Islanders
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
New York Islanders
2
FinalTV MSG+, BSSO·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the New York Islanders 5-2. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Domi's goal at 5:40 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 48% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 3.2 to 2.2; shots on goal were CAR 34, NYI 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Antti Raanta stopped 17 of 18 (.944), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Max Domi (1 G), 2. Seth Jarvis (1 G), 3. Ryan Pulock (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    M. Domi1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    R. Pulock1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR21009315534
NYINYI1121905226

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    D. Stepan(9)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.24win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:25
  2. CAR
    S. Jarvis(17)PPG
    A. Svechnikov (39), S. Aho (43)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    8:09
  3. NYI
    R. Johnston(2)
    M. Martin (4), C. Cizikas (6)
    wristxG 0.31win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    18:25

2nd period

  1. NYI
    R. Pulock(4)PPG
    J. Bailey (28), K. Bellows (12)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    15:27

3rd period

  1. CAR
    M. Domi(11)
    T. Teravainen (43), J. Martinook (9)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +28 pts
    3-2
    5:40
  2. CAR
    J. Fast(14)EN
    J. Staal (19)
    wristxG 0.64win prob +9 pts
    4-2
    17:53
  3. CAR
    B. Smith(4)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.18win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    18:50

Penalties

CAR 10 PIM·NYI 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:16NYIKyle Palmieri · Hookingdrawn by Tony DeAngelo2 min
  • 13:08NYIZdeno Chara · Roughingdrawn by Max Domi2 min
  • 13:08CARMax Domi · Slashingdrawn by Zdeno Chara2 min

2nd

  • 6:03CARBrady Skjei · Slashingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 13:43CARTony DeAngelo · Holdingdrawn by Kieffer Bellows2 min

3rd

  • 8:50CARJordan Martinook · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 20:00CARMax Domi · Roughingdrawn by Ross Johnston2 min
  • 20:00NYIRoss Johnston · Cross checkingdrawn by Max Domi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalCAR goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Max Domi, 3rd 5:40 — CAR 48% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.31B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.17O. Koivula · On goal · xG 0.14M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.14C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.13M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.11O. Koivula · On goal · xG 0.11B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.09K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.09J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.07M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.06M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.06J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.05M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.04M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.04B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.04R. Pulock · Goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.04A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.03R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.02K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.02J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.02M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.01K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.01A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.01C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.01O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI2 G · 2.2 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNYI
3.23 G
All situations
2 G2.2
2.22 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
0.11 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR53%47%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 2.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNYI
34
Shots on goal
26
57%
Faceoffs
43%
1/1
Power play
1/3
10
Penalty minutes
6
11
Hits
23
10
Blocked shots
10
8
Giveaways
24
3
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD000+120.06200—23:25
77T. DeAngeloD000+100.00012—22:12
76B. SkjeiD000+220.06202—21:24
22B. PesceD000+120.17010—20:50
20S. AhoC011+120.080106017:34
11J. StaalC011+120.232005016:44
86T. TeravainenC011+110.12010016:40
71J. FastR101+130.90110—16:29
7B. SmithD101+110.18110—16:03
25E. BearD000020.05000—15:26
21N. NiederreiterR000+100.0911010015:14
24S. JarvisR101010.16100—14:41
37A. SvechnikovR011+120.06000—13:47
48J. MartinookL011+130.10102—13:40
13M. DomiC101+140.330043612:50
88M. NecasC000+130.18010012:25
18D. StepanC101030.310008912:20
78S. LorentzC000010.11020010:32
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32A. Raanta18171.9441.53+0.5332:57
52P. Kochetkov(W)871.8750.65-0.3527:03

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).