Islanders at Hurricanes 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

▸2

Carolina Hurricanes

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Carolina Hurricanes 2-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Palmieri's goal at 19:45 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 49% to 98%. Expected goals were close — NYI 1.9, CAR 1.8; shots on goal were NYI 21, CAR 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 21 (.905). Three stars: 1. Kyle Palmieri (1 G, 1 A), 2. Vincent Trocheck (1 G), 3. Ilya Sorokin (20 saves, .952).

Three stars

★
K. Palmieri1 G, 1 A
★★
V. Trocheck1 G
★★★
I. Sorokin20 saves, .952

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	07	18	16	221
CAR	012	01	18	121

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

J. Pageau(15)
M. Martin (3), K. Palmieri (15)
wristxG 0.15win prob +19 pts
1-0
8:24

3rd period

V. Trocheck(19)
S. Aho (39), T. DeAngelo (36)
wristxG 0.08win prob +46 pts
1-1
19:03
K. Palmieri(14)
Z. Parise (18), B. Nelson (18)
wristxG 0.12win prob +50 pts
2-1
19:45

Penalties

8 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

5:11Ethan Bear · High stickingdrawn by Zdeno Chara2 min
12:49Martin Necas · Cross checkingdrawn by Adam Pelech2 min
14:58Casey Cizikas · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

2nd

5:19Max Domi · Hookingdrawn by Matt Martin2 min
17:14Anders Lee · Hookingdrawn by Jordan Martinook2 min

3rd

0:20Casey Cizikas · Boardingdrawn by Brendan Smith2 min
12:52Andrei Svechnikov · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
13:44Zach Parise · Trippingdrawn by Brett Pesce2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CAR

Biggest swing: Kyle Palmieri, 3rd 19:45 — NYI 49% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.8 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.9 xG · 29 att CAR

1 G · 1.8 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.92 G
All situations: 1 G1.8; 1.72 G
Even strength: 1 G1.1; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.7; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 68 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

53%47%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.93 – 1.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 21; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 0/4
Power play: 0/4; 8
Penalty minutes: 8; 20
Hits: 14; 15
Blocked shots: 6; 2
Giveaways: 15; 11
Takeaways: 14

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	1	5	0	—	23:18
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	1	1	0	—	22:17
33Z. CharaD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	1	0	—	20:38
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	2	0	0	—	19:51
29B. NelsonC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	38	18:09
12J. BaileyR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.16	0	0	0	—	17:45
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	-1	4	0.39	1	0	2	—	17:39
4A. GreeneD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	—	17:11
44J. PageauC	1	0	1	0	1	0.21	0	2	0	57	16:55
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	5	1	4	46	16:39
13M. BarzalC	0	0	0	0	1	0.23	0	1	0	50	15:53
21K. PalmieriC	1	1	2	+2	1	0.13	2	0	0	0	15:29
11Z. PariseL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.41	1	0	2	—	14:50
18A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	14:44
32R. JohnstonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	3	0	—	11:58
17M. MartinL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.20	2	0	0	—	11:46
7G. HuttonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	10:32
26O. WahlstromR	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	0	0	—	06:41

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(W)	21	20	1	.952	1.79	+0.79	59:45

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Oct 143@6Final
Apr 82@1this game
Apr 245@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score