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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jeff Skinner's goal at 4:09 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 74% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.4 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 28, TOR 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 24 of 26 (.923), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Erik Kallgren stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 1 A), 2. Alex Tuch (2 A), 3. Craig Anderson (24 saves, .923).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    C. Anderson24 saves, .923

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF16112310528
TORTOR0719110226

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(19)PPG
    V. Olofsson (22), R. Dahlin (36)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    7:25

2nd period

  1. TOR
    T. Liljegren(4)
    W. Nylander (41), M. Rielly (52)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    2:09
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(33)PPG
    A. Tuch (24), H. Jokiharju (13)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    9:11

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(31)
    A. Tuch (25)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    4:09
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(10)
    V. Olofsson (23), R. Asplund (19)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +6 pts
    4-1
    5:43
  3. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(13)
    M. Rielly (53), P. Engvall (15)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +4 pts
    4-2
    8:53
  4. BUF
    R. Asplund(7)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.64win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    17:42

Penalties

BUF 10 PIM·TOR 8 PIM

1st

  • 0:32TORAuston Matthews · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 4:48BUFJacob Bryson · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 5:26TORMorgan Rielly · High stickingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 13:48BUFDylan Cozens · Hookingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

2nd

  • 8:04TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min
  • 13:31BUFVinnie Hinostroza · High stickingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 15:10TORJason Spezza · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

3rd

  • 6:41BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Nick Abruzzese2 min
  • 19:39BUFJohn Hayden · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Erik Kallgren2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Jeff Skinner, 3rd 4:09 — BUF 74% → 91%

Game flow

expected goals, added up
BUF 2.26TOR 2.51dots are goals · empty-net attempts left out
PeriodBUF xGAttGTOR xGAttG
1st0.641110.5790
2nd0.871410.78111
3rd0.761321.15121

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.28M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.19I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.18N. Abruzzese · On goal · xG 0.16M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.11P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.10A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.09W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.08T. Liljegren · Goal · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.06J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.06C. Blackwell · Missed · xG 0.05P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR2 G · 2.5 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
3.44 G
All situations
2 G2.5
1.72 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.52 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF45%55%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.22 – 2.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Best chances

by our xG
  1. TORT. Liljegren2nd 13:13 · wrist · 6 ftSaved28%
  2. BUFD. Cozens3rd 19:38 · backhand · 7 ftSaved22%
  3. BUFJ. Hayden3rd 19:36 · backhand · 6 ftSaved19%
  4. TORM. Bunting3rd 19:58 · wrist · 7 ft · PPSaved19%
  5. TORI. Mikheyev3rd 10:38 · wrist · 7 ftSaved18%
  6. BUFT. Thompson2nd 9:11 · wrist · 22 ft · PPGoal18%

The chance each attempt scores, from where and how it was taken. Empty-net attempts are left out.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
28
Shots on goal
26
31%
Faceoffs
69%
2/4
Power play
0/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
35
Hits
23
14
Blocked shots
11
7
Giveaways
16
11
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD112+130.14400—24:33
10H. JokiharjuD011+210.01340—23:41
23M. SamuelssonD000-110.02720—23:20
25O. PowerD000+200.01110—19:50
72T. ThompsonC101+130.371125618:16
53J. SkinnerL101050.35100—18:06
89A. TuchR022+110.21000—18:00
21K. OkposoR101030.133201717:36
28Z. GirgensonsC000000.012205016:48
24D. CozensC000-120.820022516:00
37C. MittelstadtC000+110.152002415:48
71V. OlofssonL022+110.06000—14:25
45C. FitzgeraldD000-100.00310—13:08
19P. KrebsC000020.092004513:02
74R. AsplundC112+210.64100012:51
78J. BrysonD000-110.04012—11:04
29V. HinostrozaC000-100.08102009:20
15J. HaydenC000-130.30402005:51
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)26242.9232.51+0.5160:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).