Maple Leafs at Sabres 5-4 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Toronto Maple Leafs

▸5

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-4. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Morgan Rielly's goal at 19:48 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 98%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.2 to 1.7; shots on goal were TOR 26, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.8 goals below expected; Aaron Dell stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 3.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jeff Skinner (2 G, 1 A), 2. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 3. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
J. Skinner2 G, 1 A
★★
T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
★★★
J. Tavares1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	15	28	213	526
BUF	113	17	27	427

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

D. Kampf(2)
A. Kerfoot (7), P. Engvall (3)
wristxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
1-0
2:43
J. Skinner(4)
C. Miller (7), K. Okposo (4)
snapxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
1-1
14:42

2nd period

O. Kase(4)
J. Tavares (7), A. Matthews (6)
wristxG 0.05win prob +18 pts
2-1
7:18
M. Bunting(4)
J. Muzzin (4), J. Spezza (3)
slapxG 0.03win prob +17 pts
3-1
8:28
T. Thompson(5)
J. Skinner (4)
slapxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
3-2
17:33

3rd period

J. Tavares(8)PPG
M. Rielly (9), M. Marner (11)
tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
4-2
9:22
J. Skinner(5)
T. Thompson (4)
tip-inxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
4-3
10:47
R. Dahlin(2)
A. Ruotsalainen (2), K. Okposo (5)
slapxG 0.03win prob +34 pts
4-4
11:46
M. Rielly(1)
A. Kerfoot (8)
wristxG 0.05win prob +50 pts
5-4
19:48

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

9:47TJ Brodie · Hookingdrawn by Anders Bjork2 min
15:27Pierre Engvall · Hookingdrawn by Robert Hagg2 min

3rd

7:26Arttu Ruotsalainen · Hookingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Morgan Rielly, 3rd 19:48 — TOR 49% → 98%

Game flow

expected goals, added up

1.65

2.18dots are goals · empty-net attempts left out

Period	TOR xG	Att	G	BUF xG	Att	G
1st	0.38	6	1	0.92	18	1
2nd	0.43	10	2	0.42	12	1
3rd	0.84	19	2	0.84	15	2

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

4 G · 2.2 xG · 45 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 1.7 xG · 35 att BUF

4 G · 2.2 xG · 45 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.75 G
All situations: 4 G2.2; 1.54 G
Even strength: 4 G2.0; 0.11 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

40%60%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Best chances

by our xG

J. Skinner3rd 10:47 · tip-in · 11 ftGoal17%
D. Cozens1st 0:37 · wrist · 10 ftSaved16%
T. Thompson1st 16:32 · snap · 27 ft · PPSaved15%
T. Thompson2nd 17:33 · slap · 37 ftGoal15%
D. Kampf1st 2:43 · wrist · 16 ftGoal13%
N. Ritchie1st 13:36 · wrist · 18 ftSaved13%

The chance each attempt scores, from where and how it was taken. Empty-net attempts are left out.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 27; 64%
Faceoffs: 36%; 1/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 7
Hits: 7; 12
Blocked shots: 9; 10
Giveaways: 3; 1
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44M. RiellyD	1	1	2	+3	4	0.10	1	2	0	—	24:35
8J. MuzzinD	0	1	1	-1	0	0.02	1	0	0	—	22:41
78T. BrodieD	0	0	0	+3	0	0.00	0	4	2	—	21:30
3J. HollD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	3	0	—	20:39
34A. MatthewsC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.30	0	0	0	56	19:19
16M. MarnerR	0	1	1	-1	2	0.21	0	0	0	—	18:19
25O. KaseR	1	0	1	0	2	0.13	0	1	0	—	17:52
91J. TavaresC	1	1	2	0	2	0.11	1	0	0	56	17:11
88W. NylanderR	0	0	0	-2	2	0.14	0	0	0	—	16:41
20N. RitchieL	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	2	0	0	—	15:40
64D. KampfC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.13	0	0	0	78	15:33
37T. LiljegrenD	0	0	0	-2	2	0.06	0	1	0	—	15:04
15A. KerfootC	0	2	2	+2	3	0.14	0	0	0	0	14:27
23T. DermottD	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:51
47P. EngvallL	0	1	1	+2	1	0.07	0	0	2	—	13:44
58M. BuntingL	1	0	1	-1	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	10:03
94K. SemyonovC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	09:52
19J. SpezzaC	0	1	1	-1	2	0.03	0	1	0	75	08:59

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
60J. Woll(W)	27	23	4	.852	2.18	-1.82	60:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score