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Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
FinalTV MSG-B, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 12:19 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.2 to 1.6; shots on goal were BUF 31, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Petr Mrazek stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 2.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jeff Skinner (1 G, 1 A), 2. Craig Anderson (29 saves, .967), 3. Dylan Cozens (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    C. Anderson29 saves, .967
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    D. Cozens2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF15210216531
TORTOR16011013130

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Bryson(1)PPG
    D. Cozens (16), C. Mittelstadt (3)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +9 pts
    1-0
    2:26
  2. TOR
    R. Sandin(4)
    M. Bunting (23), M. Marner (36)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    11:48

2nd period

  1. BUF
    V. Olofsson(8)
    R. Asplund (14), R. Dahlin (27)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +20 pts
    2-1
    12:19
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(23)
    J. Skinner (18), A. Tuch (16)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    18:31

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(21)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +6 pts
    4-1
    6:39
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(14)
    D. Cozens (17), M. Pysyk (9)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +1 pts
    5-1
    11:48

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 1:31TORAlexander Kerfoot · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min

2nd

  • 1:51BUFKyle Okposo · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Sandin2 min

3rd

  • 14:12TORJason Spezza · Hookingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 2nd 12:19 — BUF 47% → 67%

Game flow

expected goals, added up
BUF 2.17TOR 1.65dots are goals · empty-net attempts left out
PeriodBUF xGAttGTOR xGAttG
1st0.32710.4081
2nd0.651120.76170
3rd1.201920.50220

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.21P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10D. Kampf · Missed · xG 0.08A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.08I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.08P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.05W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04I. Lyubushkin · Missed · xG 0.04I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.04R. Sandin · Goal · xG 0.04N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.04A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.03I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.02W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.02R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.02W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.02W. Simmonds · Missed · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.01P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.01P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01I. Mikheyev · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.00T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR1 G · 1.6 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
2.25 G
All situations
1 G1.6
2.04 G
Even strength
1 G1.4
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF59%41%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.06 – 1.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Best chances

by our xG
  1. BUFJ. Skinner3rd 3:14 · wrist · 12 ftMissed35%
  2. BUFT. Thompson3rd 3:11 · wrist · 22 ftSaved23%
  3. TORD. Kampf1st 16:30 · wrist · 11 ftSaved21%
  4. BUFT. Thompson2nd 18:31 · wrist · 17 ftGoal16%
  5. BUFV. Olofsson2nd 12:19 · wrist · 14 ftGoal15%
  6. BUFK. Okposo1st 0:44 · deflected · 18 ftSaved12%

The chance each attempt scores, from where and how it was taken. Empty-net attempts are left out.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
31
Shots on goal
30
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
20
Hits
17
16
Blocked shots
9
11
Giveaways
11
11
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011+210.01100—21:13
78J. BrysonD101+230.06200—20:24
8R. HaggD000+210.01520—19:23
45C. FitzgeraldD000-110.02400—18:59
23M. SamuelssonD000-110.02220—18:45
13M. PysykD011+210.05160—18:21
53J. SkinnerL112+160.640005017:50
89A. TuchR011+110.09120—17:37
72T. ThompsonC101+130.481205717:23
21K. OkposoR101+130.18112—16:20
24D. CozensC022+120.1200010015:56
20C. EakinC000000.000002015:55
37C. MittelstadtC011+100.061003315:22
96A. BjorkL000010.00000—15:05
15J. HaydenC000010.06010014:13
71V. OlofssonL101+130.26000—12:32
19P. KrebsC000+100.000003312:18
74R. AsplundC011+130.11100010:24
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)30291.9671.65+0.6560:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).