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Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks

FinalTV TNT, SNW·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-2. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Trevor Zegras's goal at 18:11 of the second period, which took the Ducks' chances from 13% to 30%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 3.5 to 3.0; shots on goal were CGY 28, ANA 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 24 of 27 (.889). Three stars: 1. Jacob Markstrom (26 saves, .929), 2. Adam Henrique (1 G), 3. Michael Stone (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom26 saves, .929
  2. ★★
    ANA
    A. Henrique1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Stone1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY11017211428
ANAANA01315110228

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    slapxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    12:33

2nd period

  1. CGY
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    10:11
  2. ANA
    wristxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    18:11

3rd period

  1. CGY
    slapxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    3-1
    10:28
  2. ANA
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    3-2
    11:53
  3. CGY
    wristxG 0.94win prob +5 pts
    4-2
    19:25

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·ANA 4 PIM

2nd

  • 11:33ANAAnthony Stolarz · Trippingdrawn by Trevor Lewis2 min
  • 15:54CGYNikita Zadorov · Hookingdrawn by Troy Terry2 min

3rd

  • 5:35CGYChris Tanev · High stickingdrawn by Sonny Milano2 min
  • 11:05CGYserved by M. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 20:00ANAVinni Lettieri · High stickingdrawn by Chris Tanev2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalCGY goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: Trevor Zegras, 2nd 18:11 — ANA 13% → 30%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.33V. Lettieri · On goal · xG 0.23Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.20T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.17D. Grant · Missed · xG 0.16D. Simon · On goal · xG 0.15S. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.13D. Grant · On goal · xG 0.13M. Comtois · Missed · xG 0.12A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.12D. Grant · Missed · xG 0.11A. Henrique · Goal · xG 0.09I. Lundeström · On goal · xG 0.09T. Zegras · Goal · xG 0.09T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.08D. Simon · On goal · xG 0.07I. Lundeström · On goal · xG 0.07I. Lundeström · Missed · xG 0.06S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.06M. Comtois · On goal · xG 0.05D. Simon · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.04K. Shattenkirk · Missed · xG 0.04C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.04A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.03A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.03S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.03A. Henrique · Missed · xG 0.03S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.02D. Simon · On goal · xG 0.02K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.02A. Sustr · Missed · xG 0.02U. Vaakanainen · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.01S. Milano · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01J. Drysdale · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.01V. Lettieri · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA2 G · 3.0 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsANA
3.53 G
All situations
2 G3.0
2.63 G
Even strength
1 G2.5
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY42%58%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.52 – 2.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsANA
28
Shots on goal
28
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
21
11
Blocked shots
19
8
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD000+100.00020—25:38
55N. HanifinD000+210.06000—23:13
13J. GaudreauL022+140.48000—20:05
28E. LindholmC101+120.290005720:02
8C. TanevD000+100.02012—19:42
26M. StoneD112+120.14210—18:39
19M. TkachukL101+221.07200—18:11
44E. GudbransonD000020.03000—16:32
16N. ZadorovD000000.00322—15:47
11M. BacklundC011+120.120005015:20
88A. MangiapaneL022+230.12020—13:48
22T. LewisC000000.0010010013:43
73T. ToffoliC101+210.1711010013:40
18R. CarpenterC000020.212006713:24
20B. ColemanL000030.37000—13:09
17M. LucicL000020.13100—12:44
63A. RuzickaC000+120.210201711:00
29D. DubeC000000.07100010:31
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(W)28262.9293.01+1.0160:00

Season series

CGY leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).