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Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames

FinalTV BSSD, BSSC·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Anaheim Ducks 6-2. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sonny Milano's goal at 1:35 of the second period, which took the Ducks' chances from 16% to 31%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 4.8 to 2.9; shots on goal were ANA 28, CGY 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Elias Lindholm (2 G, 1 A), 2. Rasmus Andersson (3 A), 3. Johnny Gaudreau (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    E. Lindholm2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    R. Andersson3 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ANAANA0121719228
CGYCGY212212219643

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:34
  2. CGY
    wristxG 0.27win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    12:55

2nd period

  1. ANA
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    1:35
  2. CGY
    wristxG 0.16win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    3:43
  3. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(23)PPG
    wristxG 0.14win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    4:24

3rd period

  1. ANA
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    4:26
  2. CGY
    wristxG 0.91win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    16:48
  3. CGY
    wristxG 0.20
    2-6
    17:51

Penalties

ANA 15 PIM·CGY 15 PIM

1st

  • 0:34CGYElias Lindholm · High sticking double minordrawn by Jamie Drysdale4 min
  • 6:00CGYAdam Ruzicka · Elbowingdrawn by Kevin Shattenkirk2 min
  • 11:50ANAAdam Henrique · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min
  • 14:12CGYMilan Lucic · Fightingdrawn by Nicolas Deslauriers5 min
  • 14:12ANANicolas Deslauriers · Fightingdrawn by Milan Lucic5 min

2nd

  • 2:04CGYJacob Markstrom · Trippingdrawn by Trevor Zegras2 min
  • 2:33ANAJakob Silfverberg · Trippingdrawn by Chris Tanev2 min
  • 5:58CGYSean Monahan · Slashingdrawn by Trevor Zegras2 min
  • 12:47ANASimon Benoit · Interferencedrawn by Milan Lucic2 min

3rd

  • 3:04ANATrevor Zegras · High stickingdrawn by Adam Ruzicka2 min
  • 6:47ANASam Carrick · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalANA goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Sonny Milano, 2nd 1:35 — ANA 16% → 31%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.91B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.31E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.26A. Mangiapane · Goal · xG 0.20E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.18S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.17E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.16J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.15E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.14M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.14M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.12M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.10E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.09R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.09M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.09A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.09B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.08E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.07E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.07M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.07D. Dube · Goal · xG 0.06B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.06S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.05A. Ruzicka · On goal · xG 0.05J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.05T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.05R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.05B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.05A. Ruzicka · On goal · xG 0.05T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.05J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ruzicka · On goal · xG 0.04J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.04T. Lewis · Missed · xG 0.04B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.03O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.03R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ruzicka · Missed · xG 0.03R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02S. Monahan · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.02E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.01N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ruzicka · On goal · xG 0.00E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY6 G · 4.8 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsCGY
2.92 G
All situations
5 G4.8
1.41 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.80 G
Power play
2 G1.7
0.71 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA35%65%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.82 – 3.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsCGY
28
Shots on goal
43
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/5
Power play
2/5
15
Penalty minutes
15
17
Hits
25
6
Blocked shots
11
8
Giveaways
8
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
47H. LindholmD000010.01100—25:07
4C. FowlerD011-110.12000—22:33
22K. ShattenkirkD000030.17100—21:43
19T. TerryR000-120.17000—19:32
15R. GetzlafC000-100.050106019:21
67R. RakellR000030.80300—19:19
14A. HenriqueC000-130.280126718:48
29G. PaterynD000-220.02100—17:51
12S. MilanoL101+120.26000—16:52
34J. DrysdaleD000000.00000—16:35
46T. ZegrasC000-120.140021415:56
33J. SilfverbergR000000.00002—14:03
38D. GrantC000-130.262203313:07
86S. BenoitD000-100.00112—12:49
21I. LundestromC112010.280102912:46
39S. CarrickC000-120.114024508:55
20N. DeslauriersL000-110.14405—08:52
53B. RobinsonR000-120.06000—07:35
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz22211.9552.18+1.1831:28
36J. Gibson(L)20164.8001.67-2.3328:05

Season series

CGY leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).