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Utah Mammoth at Winnipeg Jets

Final/OTTV BSAZX, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Utah Mammoth 2-1 in overtime, Mark Scheifele scoring at 4:50. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mark Scheifele's goal at 4:50 of overtime, which took the Jets' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 4.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were ARI 29, WPG 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 38 of 40 (.950), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Karel Vejmelka (38 saves, .950), 2. Connor Hellebuyck (28 saves, .966), 3. Mark Scheifele (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ARI
    K. Vejmelka38 saves, .950
  2. ★★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck28 saves, .966
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
ARIARI090411105129
WPGWPG1140110817240

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    19:46

3rd period

  1. ARI
    wristxG 0.33win prob +27 pts
    1-1
    6:17

Overtime

  1. WPG
    wristxG 0.23win prob +49 pts
    1-2
    4:50

Penalties

ARI 4 PIM·WPG 0 PIM

2nd

  • 5:31ARIAlex Galchenyuk · Trippingdrawn by Pierre-Luc Dubois2 min

3rd

  • 17:45ARILawson Crouse · Trippingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalARI goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Mark Scheifele, OT 4:50 — WPG 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.23M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.20B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.17N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.16K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.16P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.15B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.15K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.15J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.13M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.12B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.10N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.09D. Toninato · On goal · xG 0.09K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.09M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.08P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.08M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.08P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.08K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.08J. Harkins · Missed · xG 0.07J. Harkins · On goal · xG 0.07P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.07P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.07N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.07P. Stastny · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.06B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.06J. Morrissey · Missed · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.05J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.05M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.05N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.04K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.04P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.04N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.04M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.03B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.03K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.02N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.02J. Morrissey · On goal · xG 0.02V. Heinola · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dillon · On goal · xG 0.01B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dillon · Missed · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG2 G · 4.1 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsWPG
2.41 G
All situations
2 G4.1
2.41 G
Even strength
2 G4.0
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI24%76%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 4.09

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsWPG
29
Shots on goal
40
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/0
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
0
17
Hits
21
13
Blocked shots
13
15
Giveaways
10
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
86A. StralmanD000-130.13300—25:02
61D. MayoD000-110.07120—24:35
14S. GostisbehereD000000.09010—24:15
9C. KellerR000000.00010—22:27
8N. SchmaltzC011020.300206322:09
54C. DineenD011+140.12110—21:57
63M. MaccelliL000030.39010—17:41
72T. BoydC000-100.000003316:22
67L. CrouseL000-110.08012—16:01
81P. KesselR000050.22000—15:55
29B. HaytonC000010.032004015:39
92V. KolyachonokD000010.01310—14:38
75K. CapobiancoD000010.02120—14:30
53M. CarconeL000010.07100—13:34
12N. RitchieL101+130.50310—13:19
83J. BeagleC000000.030005811:41
21L. ErikssonL000030.08100—11:31
17A. GalchenyukC000-100.241024009:15
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(O)40382.9504.13+2.1364:50

Season series

WPG leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).