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Sabres at Rangers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
4
New York Rangers
▸5
Final/OTTV MSG+, MSG-B·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Rangers beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-4 in overtime, K'Andre Miller scoring at 2:02. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was K'Andre Miller's goal at 2:02 of overtime, which took the Rangers' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Rangers, 4.4 to 1.4; shots on goal were BUF 17, NYR 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 90% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 0.7 goals below expected; Alexandar Georgiev stopped 13 of 17 (.765), 2.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. K'Andre Miller (1 G), 2. Frank Vatrano (2 G), 3. Rasmus Dahlin (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYR
    K. Miller1 G
  2. ★★
    NYR
    F. Vatrano2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF152101200417
NYRNYR2711111013531

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NYR
    F. Vatrano(13)
    C. Kreider (18)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    3:59
  2. NYR
    F. Vatrano(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.25win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    4:17
  3. BUF
    R. Asplund(6)
    M. Samuelsson (6), C. Mittelstadt (7)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    18:12

2nd period

  1. BUF
    W. Butcher(2)
    P. Krebs (9), V. Hinostroza (12)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    2:06
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(16)
    Z. Girgensons (6), R. Dahlin (31)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +18 pts
    3-2
    6:48
  3. NYR
    A. Lafrenière(15)
    F. Chytil (12), J. Brodzinski (1)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +20 pts
    3-3
    11:46

3rd period

  1. NYR
    A. Panarin(17)
    J. Trouba (23), A. Copp (25)
    snapxG 0.42win prob +26 pts
    3-4
    3:52
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(27)PPG
    R. Dahlin (32), C. Mittelstadt (8)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +31 pts
    4-4
    13:07

Overtime

  1. NYR
    K. Miller(6)
    A. Lafrenière (10), A. Copp (26)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    2:02

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·NYR 2 PIM

2nd

  • 13:03BUFserved by P. Krebs · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 12:08NYRPatrik Nemeth · High stickingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYR goalBUF goalFinal: NYR 100%

Biggest swing: K'Andre Miller, OT 2:02 — NYR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Panarin · Goal · xG 0.42A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.28M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.26F. Vatrano · Goal · xG 0.25A. Lafrenière · Goal · xG 0.20M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.18J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.17A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.15M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.15P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.13K. Miller · Goal · xG 0.13J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.13D. Hunt · On goal · xG 0.12R. Strome · Missed · xG 0.10F. Chytil · Missed · xG 0.10M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.09C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.09A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.09F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.09A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.09A. Fox · On goal · xG 0.08D. Hunt · Missed · xG 0.08C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.07A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.07T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.07J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.06A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.06F. Chytil · Missed · xG 0.05J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.05A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.04R. Lindgren · Missed · xG 0.04T. Motte · On goal · xG 0.04M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.04B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.04M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.03K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.03J. Brodzinski · On goal · xG 0.03A. Fox · On goal · xG 0.03A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.02R. Lindgren · On goal · xG 0.02K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.02A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · Missed · xG 0.01F. Vatrano · Goal · xG 0.01F. Chytil · On goal · xG 0.01B. Schneider · Missed · xG 0.01K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01F. Chytil · Missed · xG 0.01
NYR5 G · 4.4 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYR
1.44 G
All situations
5 G4.4
1.23 G
Even strength
5 G3.8
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF10%90%NYR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.40 – 4.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYR
17
Shots on goal
31
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
20
Hits
18
9
Blocked shots
14
12
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD022-300.00410—26:45
10H. JokiharjuD000-200.00210—24:57
23M. SamuelssonD011+310.00220—22:09
72T. ThompsonC000-320.240002017:25
78J. BrysonD000+200.00010—17:21
45C. FitzgeraldD000-200.00400—17:03
21K. OkposoR101-130.22200—16:51
89A. TuchR000-210.04010—16:27
20C. EakinC000010.170004715:51
53J. SkinnerL101-210.18010—15:25
37C. MittelstadtC022010.030004615:19
28Z. GirgensonsC011000.02300014:39
74R. AsplundC101010.06100014:33
19P. KrebsC011+100.00000014:24
29V. HinostrozaC011000.07100014:21
24D. CozensC000+140.270005014:17
71V. OlofssonL000+100.00020—13:31
4W. ButcherD101-120.08100—12:48
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(O)31265.8394.35-0.6562:02

Season series

NYR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).