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Ducks at Predators
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
1
Nashville Predators
▸4
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Filip Forsberg's goal at 11:41 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals were close — ANA 2.5, NSH 2.6; shots on goal were ANA 28, NSH 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. John Gibson stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.9 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (2 G, 1 A), 2. Juuse Saros (27 saves, .964), 3. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    M. Duchene2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Saros27 saves, .964
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ANAANA01001117128
NSHNSH11011426430

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    M. Duchene(28)PPG
    F. Forsberg (20), M. Granlund (34)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    10:53

2nd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(28)
    M. Duchene (25), M. Ekholm (14)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    11:41

3rd period

  1. ANA
    A. Henrique(13)
    J. Mahura (3)
    deflectedxG 0.17win prob +10 pts
    1-2
    14:14
  2. NSH
    C. Sissons(6)
    M. Benning (10), T. Jeannot (15)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +8 pts
    1-3
    17:30
  3. NSH
    M. Duchene(29)EN
    F. Forsberg (21), R. Josi (46)
    wristxG 0.49win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    18:19

Penalties

ANA 9 PIM·NSH 11 PIM

1st

  • 10:07ANASam Steel · Hookingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min

2nd

  • 7:31NSHMichael McCarron · Cross checkingdrawn by Hampus Lindholm2 min
  • 17:41ANABuddy Robinson · Interferencedrawn by Matt Benning2 min
  • 19:47ANABuddy Robinson · Fightingdrawn by Michael McCarron5 min
  • 19:47NSHMichael McCarron · Fightingdrawn by Buddy Robinson5 min

3rd

  • 15:12NSHAlexandre Carrier · Holdingdrawn by Troy Terry2 min
  • 18:49NSHPhilip Tomasino · High stickingdrawn by Nicolas Deslauriers2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalANA goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Filip Forsberg, 2nd 11:41 — NSH 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.49F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.14E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.14M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.13M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.13R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.12M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.09E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.09R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.09R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.08T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.08M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.07M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.06T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.05E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.05T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.04T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.03N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.03N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.03C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.03N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.02M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.01M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.01
NSH4 G · 2.6 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsNSH
2.51 G
All situations
3 G2.6
2.11 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA56%44%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 2.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsNSH
28
Shots on goal
30
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/3
Power play
1/2
9
Penalty minutes
11
29
Hits
34
9
Blocked shots
20
10
Giveaways
10
8
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4C. FowlerD000-210.22010—24:17
47H. LindholmD000-130.04200—21:13
22K. ShattenkirkD000040.28210—20:46
34J. DrysdaleD000-200.02000—19:22
67R. RakellR000-140.2711010019:13
19T. TerryR000-110.32000—19:05
92A. SustrD000010.03220—18:54
12S. MilanoL000-120.18000—18:38
44M. ComtoisL000-110.155005018:16
14A. HenriqueC101010.200105918:09
23S. SteelC000020.292026717:35
76J. MahuraD011+120.03200—13:22
39S. CarrickC000-120.033103313:08
20N. DeslauriersL000010.03500—12:48
28V. LettieriC000-110.04100012:41
38D. GrantC000-100.171103311:40
53B. RobinsonR000010.01217—10:05
55D. O'ReganC000010.161005009:45
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Gibson(L)29263.8972.13-0.8758:18

Season series

NSH leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).