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Maple Leafs at Red Wings
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸7
Detroit Red Wings
4
FinalTV BSDET, SN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 7-4. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Red Wings led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rasmus Sandin's goal at 17:09 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 91%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.2 to 3.5; shots on goal were TOR 37, DET 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 0.5 goals below expected; Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 2.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Michael Bunting (3 G), 2. Dylan Larkin (2 G, 1 A), 3. Vladislav Namestnikov (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Bunting3 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    D. Larkin2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    V. Namestnikov1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR19115513737
DETDET11531307435

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(21)
    V. Namestnikov (10)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    1:15
  2. TOR
    P. Engvall(6)
    M. Rielly (30), J. Spezza (6)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:28

2nd period

  1. DET
    V. Namestnikov(12)
    D. Larkin (19), M. Seider (24)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    1:16
  2. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(21)
    R. Fabbri (9), M. Seider (25)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    2:11
  3. TOR
    M. Bunting(10)
    J. Holl (3), D. Kampf (7)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    12:07
  4. DET
    D. Larkin(22)PPG
    R. Fabbri (10), L. Raymond (24)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +12 pts
    2-4
    15:54

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Bunting(11)
    A. Matthews (19), J. Holl (4)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    3-4
    9:28
  2. TOR
    M. Bunting(12)
    M. Marner (19), A. Matthews (20)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +32 pts
    4-4
    11:58
  3. TOR
    R. Sandin(1)
    J. Tavares (23), A. Kerfoot (22)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +42 pts
    5-4
    17:09
  4. TOR
    M. Marner(11)EN
    A. Kerfoot (23), M. Rielly (31)
    snapxG 0.80win prob +1 pts
    6-4
    18:46
  5. TOR
    J. Tavares(17)EN
    D. Kampf (8)
    wristxG 0.48
    7-4
    19:49

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·DET 6 PIM

2nd

  • 9:34DETAdam Erne · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 14:44TORserved by J. Tavares · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 20:00DETVladislav Namestnikov · Roughingdrawn by Travis Dermott2 min
  • 20:00TORTravis Dermott · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min

3rd

  • 18:09DETRobby Fabbri · Hookingdrawn by Justin Holl2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTOR goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Rasmus Sandin, 3rd 17:09 — TOR 48% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.39D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.19L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.18A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.18P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.17A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.16L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.15T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.14T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.13P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.13D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.13L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.13L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.11D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.10V. Namestnikov · Goal · xG 0.10F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.10P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.10J. Veleno · Missed · xG 0.08R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.08R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.07T. Bertuzzi · Goal · xG 0.06J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.06G. Smith · Missed · xG 0.05F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.05P. Suter · Missed · xG 0.05L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.04T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.04R. Fabbri · Missed · xG 0.04P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.04F. Hronek · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.02P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.02P. Suter · Missed · xG 0.01P. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.01R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.00M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.00
DET4 G · 3.5 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDET
4.25 G
All situations
4 G3.5
2.85 G
Even strength
3 G3.3
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR42%58%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.87 – 3.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDET
37
Shots on goal
35
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/2
Power play
1/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
6
Hits
10
11
Blocked shots
14
2
Giveaways
8
2
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD022-120.05000—24:47
78T. BrodieD000010.04010—22:54
34A. MatthewsC022030.180006122:26
3J. HollD022+410.01310—21:45
38R. SandinD101+320.17030—21:18
16M. MarnerR112+150.92100—18:58
88W. NylanderR000+100.00000—18:37
58M. BuntingL303+170.76000—17:27
91J. TavaresC112+150.870106916:12
15A. KerfootC022+100.16120015:41
37T. LiljegrenD000010.03000—13:56
25O. KaseR000-120.04020—13:44
23T. DermottD000000.00002—13:17
65I. MikheyevR000010.23000—12:44
64D. KampfC022+200.000007512:24
47P. EngvallL101+150.33000—10:55
19J. SpezzaC011+110.281103810:36
24W. SimmondsR000+110.11000—09:18
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35P. Mrazek(W)35314.8863.46-0.5459:51

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).