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Red Wings at Maple Leafs
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
4
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV BSDET, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-4. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Michael Bunting's goal at 19:42 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 55% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.9 to 1.9; shots on goal were DET 31, TOR 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 33 of 38 (.868), 2.1 goals below expected; Petr Mrazek stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jake Muzzin (1 G, 1 A), 3. Joseph Veleno (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Muzzin1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    J. Veleno1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET01018313431
TORTOR11411638538

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Muzzin(1)
    T. Brodie (1), J. Tavares (3)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    19:46

2nd period

  1. DET
    F. Zadina(2)PPG
    M. Seider (8), S. Gagner (1)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    8:19
  2. TOR
    M. Bunting(3)PPG
    J. Spezza (2), N. Ritchie (1)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +20 pts
    1-2
    19:42

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(2)
    J. Tavares (4), J. Muzzin (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    0:17
  2. DET
    J. Veleno(1)
    M. Rasmussen (4)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    1:36
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(3)
    A. Kerfoot (2), M. Rielly (5)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    2-4
    7:47
  4. DET
    V. Namestnikov(4)
    J. Veleno (1), J. Oesterle (1)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    3-4
    10:11
  5. TOR
    M. Marner(1)
    Unassisted
    wrap-aroundxG 0.04win prob +7 pts
    3-5
    17:55
  6. DET
    F. Hronek(1)
    L. Raymond (5), F. Zadina (3)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +3 pts
    4-5
    19:31

Penalties

DET 4 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

2nd

  • 6:49TORJohn Tavares · Slashingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
  • 18:01DETMichael Rasmussen · Slashingdrawn by Jason Spezza2 min

3rd

  • 4:28TORTJ Brodie · Holdingdrawn by Joseph Veleno2 min
  • 19:47DETRobby Fabbri · Hookingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDET goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Michael Bunting, 2nd 19:42 — TOR 55% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.15W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.14P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.13A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.13M. Bunting · Goal · xG 0.12T. Liljegren · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.11A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.09W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.09T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.09O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.07W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.06R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.06M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.04O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.04A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.04M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.04J. Muzzin · Goal · xG 0.04O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02T. Liljegren · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.00O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.00J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.00M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 2.9 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTOR
1.94 G
All situations
5 G2.9
1.43 G
Even strength
4 G2.6
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET34%66%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.94 – 2.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTOR
31
Shots on goal
38
36%
Faceoffs
64%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
23
15
Blocked shots
14
12
Giveaways
14
13
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD101010.04120—23:39
53M. SeiderD011+130.01020—22:27
71D. LarkinC000-160.540204021:47
2N. LeddyD000-230.02110—20:49
14R. FabbriC000040.53302019:38
23L. RaymondL011010.01100—18:26
65D. DeKeyserD000010.03030—17:38
11F. ZadinaR112020.10200—17:33
82J. OesterleD011-110.07200—17:18
18M. StaalD000010.01100—15:55
92V. NamestnikovC101+210.13000015:49
27M. RasmussenC011+220.110225014:55
22M. StephensC000-200.002204014:15
24P. SuterC000-110.04100014:13
89S. GagnerC011-200.030103313:24
90J. VelenoC112+230.13200012:28
37C. RowneyC000-100.00300011:46
48G. SmithR000-110.15200—07:34
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29T. Greiss(L)38335.8682.86-2.1458:32

Season series

TOR leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).