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Lightning at Devils
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
New Jersey Devils
3
FinalTV MSG+, BSSUN·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New Jersey Devils 6-3. The Lightning came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Hedman's goal at 7:17 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Devils, 3.0 to 2.7; shots on goal were TBL 32, NJD 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Devils win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 25 (.880); Jon Gillies stopped 24 of 30 (.800), 3.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Victor Hedman (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 1 A), 3. Dawson Mercer (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    V. Hedman1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NJD
    D. Mercer1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL14214314632
NJDNJD291709325

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NJD
    D. Mercer(11)
    J. Hughes (16), Y. Sharangovich (14)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:27
  2. TBL
    P. Maroon(8)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:05
  3. NJD
    Y. Sharangovich(10)PPG
    T. Tatar (11), D. Mercer (16)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    19:04

2nd period

  1. NJD
    J. Hughes(14)
    D. Mercer (17)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    1:48
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(23)
    N. Kucherov (13), J. Rutta (10)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    15:32
  3. TBL
    A. Killorn(16)
    M. Sergachev (22), V. Hedman (39)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    16:13

3rd period

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(11)
    C. Perry (12), P. Bellemare (9)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +30 pts
    4-3
    7:17
  2. TBL
    N. Kucherov(7)
    B. Point (16)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    5-3
    9:14
  3. TBL
    P. Bellemare(6)
    C. Perry (13), P. Maroon (8)
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +4 pts
    6-3
    10:21

Penalties

TBL 16 PIM·NJD 22 PIM

1st

  • 17:48TBLserved by C. Perry · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 10:09NJDMason Geertsen · Hookingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 13:01TBLJan Rutta · Hookingdrawn by Nico Hischier2 min

3rd

  • 14:50NJDNathan Bastian · Fightingdrawn by Erik Cernak5 min
  • 14:50TBLErik Cernak · Fightingdrawn by Nathan Bastian5 min
  • 14:50NJDMason Geertsen · Misconduct10 min
  • 18:36NJDDamon Severson · Fightingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev5 min
  • 18:36TBLMikhail Sergachev · Fightingdrawn by Damon Severson5 min
  • 18:36TBLCal Foote · Roughingdrawn by Marián Studenic2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NJD goalTBL goalFinal: NJD 0%

Biggest swing: Victor Hedman, 3rd 7:17 — TBL 48% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.22N. Hischier · Missed · xG 0.21J. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.19N. Bastian · On goal · xG 0.15M. Studenic · On goal · xG 0.14J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.12P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.12Y. Sharangovich · Goal · xG 0.11P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.11J. Hughes · Missed · xG 0.11N. Bastian · Missed · xG 0.11D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.10T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.09M. Studenic · Missed · xG 0.09J. Hughes · Goal · xG 0.08D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.08P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.08C. White · On goal · xG 0.07J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.07J. Siegenthaler · On goal · xG 0.07T. Smith · Missed · xG 0.07T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.06P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.06T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.04D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.03P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.03C. White · Missed · xG 0.03J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.02P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.02T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.02T. Tatar · Missed · xG 0.02J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.02C. White · Missed · xG 0.01C. White · Missed · xG 0.01D. Mercer · Goal · xG 0.01J. Siegenthaler · On goal · xG 0.01
NJD3 G · 3.0 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNJD
2.76 G
All situations
3 G3.0
2.46 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL45%55%NJD

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.67 – 2.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNJD
32
Shots on goal
25
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/1
Power play
1/3
16
Penalty minutes
22
20
Hits
16
17
Blocked shots
9
7
Giveaways
15
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD112+440.17020—24:30
27R. McDonaghD000020.05140—24:20
98M. SergachevD011+220.06035—22:03
81E. CernakD000-130.16505—18:44
86N. KucherovR112+250.46000—18:05
44J. RuttaD011+310.02112—17:51
91S. StamkosC101010.231105017:32
71A. CirelliC000+100.001006317:21
17A. KillornL101-130.19100—16:42
21B. PointC011+200.202004316:07
18O. PalatL000+100.00030—15:08
7M. JosephR000-110.14000—13:21
41P. BellemareL112+310.262003113:19
16T. RaddyshR000030.05220—12:48
10C. PerryR022+220.17200—12:26
79R. ColtonC000020.281008012:10
14P. MaroonL112+310.25100—12:09
52C. FooteD000010.01012—10:57
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)25223.8802.97-0.0360:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).