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St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth

FinalTV BSAZ, BSMW·Gila River Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Utah Mammoth 7-4. The Coyotes scored first; the Blues answered. The Blues led 6-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jordan Kyrou's goal at 12:46 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals were close — STL 3.0, ARI 3.0; shots on goal were STL 33, ARI 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.0 goals below expected; Carter Hutton stopped 15 of 21 (.714), 4.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jordan Kyrou (2 G, 2 A), 2. Klim Kostin (2 G), 3. Shayne Gostisbehere (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    J. Kyrou2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    STL
    K. Kostin2 G
  3. ★★★
    ARI
    S. Gostisbehere3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL17516110733
ARIARI1101729426

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. ARI
    C. Keller(2)PPG
    wristxG 0.32win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    5:26
  2. STL
    J. Kyrou (3), T. Krug (1)
    slapxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    7:05

2nd period

  1. ARI
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    3:58
  2. STL
    J. Faulk(2)PPG
    snapxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    11:10
  3. STL
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +20 pts
    3-2
    12:46
  4. STL
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    14:40
  5. STL
    wristxG 0.15win prob +9 pts
    5-2
    15:27
  6. STL
    wristxG 0.20win prob +3 pts
    6-2
    16:17

3rd period

  1. ARI
    wristxG 0.11win prob +2 pts
    6-3
    5:25
  2. ARI
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +5 pts
    6-4
    8:23
  3. STL
    wristxG 0.14win prob +3 pts
    7-4
    12:25

Penalties

STL 16 PIM·ARI 18 PIM

1st

  • 3:53STLTorey Krug · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 18:53ARILawson Crouse · Cross checkingdrawn by Pavel Buchnevich2 min
  • 18:53STLPavel Buchnevich · Match penatly 10 minutesdrawn by Lawson Crouse10 min

2nd

  • 5:51STLRobert Bortuzzo · Interferencedrawn by Christian Fischer2 min
  • 9:15ARIAndrew Ladd · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

3rd

  • 3:23STLKlim Kostin · Holdingdrawn by Christian Fischer2 min
  • 19:56ARIJakob Chychrun · Interferencedrawn by Jake Neighbours2 min
  • 19:56ARIJakob Chychrun · Roughingdrawn by Jake Neighbours2 min
  • 19:56ARIJakob Chychrun · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ARI goalSTL goalFinal: ARI 0%

Biggest swing: Jordan Kyrou, 2nd 12:46 — STL 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Keller · Goal · xG 0.32J. Beagle · Missed · xG 0.31N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.25N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.17R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.16T. Boyd · Goal · xG 0.14N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.13L. Crouse · Goal · xG 0.13J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.13C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.12L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.12N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.11C. Fischer · Goal · xG 0.11L. Eriksson · On goal · xG 0.09L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.08R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.07L. Eriksson · On goal · xG 0.07C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.06R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.06J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.05P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.04N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.03C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.03J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02A. Roussel · Missed · xG 0.02P. Kessel · Missed · xG 0.02C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kessel · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.01J. Beagle · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.01I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.00A. Ladd · Missed · xG 0.00
ARI4 G · 3.0 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsARI
3.07 G
All situations
4 G3.0
2.36 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL50%50%ARI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.93 – 2.94

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsARI
33
Shots on goal
26
49%
Faceoffs
51%
1/2
Power play
1/4
16
Penalty minutes
18
15
Hits
12
13
Blocked shots
6
6
Giveaways
7
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55C. ParaykoD000+140.08050—24:25
6M. ScandellaD000030.05230—22:06
72J. FaulkD112+330.21010—21:30
47T. KrugD011+130.08102—19:26
90R. O'ReillyC011020.330106017:55
10B. SchennC000+110.043003617:30
91V. TarasenkoR011+240.39200—17:26
18R. ThomasC022+210.190006917:09
20B. SaadL000-110.16000—15:48
41R. BortuzzoD011000.00112—15:41
21T. BozakC011010.100103115:36
49I. BarbashevL101+210.21110—15:22
46J. WalmanD011+100.07100—15:01
57D. PerronL000000.00100—15:00
25J. KyrouR224+340.48000—13:06
63J. NeighboursL011010.1600010011:04
37K. KostinC202-130.25302010:59
89P. BuchnevichL101+110.180010—04:23
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(W)26224.8463.00-1.0060:00

Season series

STL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).