Jets at Oilers 1-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Winnipeg Jets

▸1

Edmonton Oilers

Final/OTTV NBCSN, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Edmonton Oilers 1-0 in overtime, Paul Stastny scoring at 4:06. The Jets scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Paul Stastny's goal at 4:06 of overtime, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were WPG 36, EDM 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 38 of 38 (1.000), 3.0 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Paul Stastny (1 G), 2. Connor Hellebuyck (38 saves, 1.000), 3. Mike Smith (35 saves, .972).

Three stars

★
P. Stastny1 G
★★
C. Hellebuyck38 saves, 1.000
★★★
M. Smith35 saves, .972

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
WPG	017	08	010	11	136
EDM	011	012	011	04	038

Scoring

1 goal

Overtime

P. Stastny(1)
A. Copp (1), T. Poolman (1)
snapxG 0.02win prob +52 pts
1-0
4:06

Penalties

8 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

3:37Ethan Bear · Slashingdrawn by Adam Lowry2 min
14:44Jujhar Khaira · Interferencedrawn by Mathieu Perreault2 min
16:34Mathieu Perreault · Roughingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min

2nd

17:37Jujhar Khaira · Roughingdrawn by Mason Appleton2 min
17:37Mason Appleton · Roughingdrawn by Jujhar Khaira2 min

3rd

2:05Paul Stastny · Slashingdrawn by Slater Koekkoek2 min
3:44Logan Stanley · Boardingdrawn by Ethan Bear2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Paul Stastny, OT 4:06 — WPG 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 3.0 xG · 49 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.6 xG · 44 att EDM

0 G · 3.0 xG · 49 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.61 G
All situations: 0 G3.0; 2.31 G
Even strength: 0 G2.4; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

43%57%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.47 – 2.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

36
Shots on goal: 38; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 8
Penalty minutes: 6; 52
Hits: 37; 22
Blocked shots: 15; 13
Giveaways: 12; 9
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44J. MorrisseyD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	5	0	0	—	27:17
24D. ForbortD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	5	2	0	—	23:07
55M. ScheifeleC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	2	5	0	42	22:58
4N. PionkD	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	2	0	0	—	22:58
81K. ConnorL	0	0	0	0	7	0.78	1	0	0	—	21:57
26B. WheelerR	0	0	0	0	4	0.18	0	1	0	—	21:15
2D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	2	0	—	20:03
9A. CoppC	0	1	1	+1	4	0.24	2	1	0	0	18:20
3T. PoolmanD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	3	2	0	—	16:53
25P. StastnyC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.08	1	0	2	50	16:39
17A. LowryC	0	0	0	0	4	0.31	3	0	0	41	16:37
22M. AppletonC	0	0	0	+1	3	0.75	1	0	2	0	15:15
64L. StanleyD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.03	2	3	2	—	14:12
13P. DuboisC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	1	0	0	13:05
85M. PerreaultC	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	7	2	2	0	12:31
23T. LewisC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	7	0	0	0	11:11
11N. ThompsonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	50	09:38
21D. ToninatoC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	0	0	08:34

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)	38	38	0	1.000	2.96	+2.96	64:06

Series

WPG leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers

Overtime

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score