Jets at Oilers 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Winnipeg Jets

▸4

Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV NBCSN, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-1. The Oilers scored first; the Jets answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dominic Toninato's goal at 9:14 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.9, EDM 3.1; shots on goal were WPG 22, EDM 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 18 of 20 (.900), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor Hellebuyck (32 saves, .970), 2. Dominic Toninato (1 G), 3. Jesse Puljujarvi (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. Hellebuyck32 saves, .970
★★
D. Toninato1 G
★★★
J. Puljujarvi1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	06	18	38	422
EDM	06	116	011	133

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

J. Puljujarvi(1)
T. Barrie (1), D. Nurse (1)
wristxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
0-1
8:24
T. Poolman(1)
B. Wheeler (1), N. Thompson (1)
wristxG 0.26win prob +19 pts
1-1
11:01

3rd period

D. Toninato(1)
L. Stanley (1), N. Thompson (2)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +32 pts
2-1
9:14
K. Connor(1)EN
M. Scheifele (1), N. Pionk (1)
wristxG 0.56win prob +7 pts
3-1
18:13
B. Wheeler(1)EN
K. Connor (1), M. Scheifele (2)
wristxG 0.94win prob +1 pts
4-1
18:45

Penalties

2 PIM·

0 PIM

2nd

15:31Paul Stastny · High stickingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: EDM

Biggest swing: Dominic Toninato, 3rd 9:14 — WPG 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 3.1 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.9 xG · 29 att EDM

1 G · 3.1 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.92 G
All situations: 1 G3.1; 1.42 G
Even strength: 1 G3.0; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

20%80%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.36 – 3.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

22
Shots on goal: 33; 60%
Faceoffs: 40%; 0/0
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 0; 68
Hits: 50; 19
Blocked shots: 8; 18
Giveaways: 15; 8
Takeaways: 8

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44J. MorrisseyD	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	5	1	0	—	22:19
2D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	2	0	—	21:23
24D. ForbortD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.01	3	1	0	—	21:09
55M. ScheifeleC	0	2	2	+2	2	0.30	0	1	0	55	20:24
81K. ConnorL	1	1	2	+1	3	0.65	0	0	0	—	20:16
4N. PionkD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	7	2	0	—	20:00
3T. PoolmanD	1	0	1	+2	2	0.29	3	1	0	—	18:17
26B. WheelerR	1	1	2	+2	4	1.22	6	2	0	—	17:43
64L. StanleyD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.04	8	4	0	—	16:52
17A. LowryC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	7	0	0	69	16:06
9A. CoppC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	5	1	0	100	15:57
22M. AppletonC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	0	0	15:23
93K. VesalainenL	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	2	2	0	—	15:22
25P. StastnyC	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	1	1	2	50	14:58
85M. PerreaultC	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	3	0	0	0	13:30
23T. LewisC	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	3	1	0	0	09:59
21D. ToninatoC	1	0	1	+2	1	0.08	5	0	0	0	09:18
11N. ThompsonC	0	2	2	+1	0	0.01	4	0	0	80	09:04

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)	33	32	1	.970	3.10	+2.10	60:00

Series

WPG leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

Box score