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Sabres at Rangers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
New York Rangers
▸3
FinalTV MSG-B, MSG·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Rangers beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Rangers scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexis Lafrenière's goal at 9:49 of the third period, which took the Rangers' chances from 52% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Rangers, 4.9 to 3.6; shots on goal were BUF 37, NYR 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 38 of 41 (.927), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Igor Shesterkin stopped 36 of 37 (.973), 2.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Igor Shesterkin (36 saves, .973), 2. Brendan Smith (1 G), 3. Alexis Lafrenière (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYR
    I. Shesterkin36 saves, .973
  2. ★★
    NYR
    B. Smith1 G
  3. ★★★
    NYR
    A. Lafrenière1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF01611209137
NYRNYR06120215341

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. NYR
    B. Smith(5)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.04win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    2:22
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(22)PPG
    C. Mittelstadt (9)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    19:56

3rd period

  1. NYR
    A. Lafrenière(10)
    R. Strome (31), A. Fox (42)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +24 pts
    1-2
    9:49
  2. NYR
    M. Zibanejad(20)PPG
    C. Kreider (10), R. Strome (32)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    13:49

Penalties

BUF 11 PIM·NYR 9 PIM

2nd

  • 19:27NYRFilip Chytil · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

3rd

  • 3:12BUFJeff Skinner · Holdingdrawn by Libor Hajek2 min
  • 6:57NYRKevin Rooney · Boardingdrawn by Drake Caggiula2 min
  • 6:57NYRKevin Rooney · Fightingdrawn by Dylan Cozens5 min
  • 6:57BUFDylan Cozens · Fightingdrawn by Kevin Rooney5 min
  • 11:08BUFTage Thompson · Cross checkingdrawn by Brendan Smith2 min
  • 12:24BUFDrake Caggiula · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYR goalBUF goalFinal: NYR 100%

Biggest swing: Alexis Lafrenière, 3rd 9:49 — NYR 52% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.64M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.20C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.19C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.16A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.15K. Kakko · On goal · xG 0.15A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.15F. Chytil · On goal · xG 0.15F. Chytil · Missed · xG 0.15C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.15A. Lafrenière · Goal · xG 0.14F. Chytil · On goal · xG 0.14K. Kakko · On goal · xG 0.14M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.12B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.12A. Fox · On goal · xG 0.11C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.11C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.10M. Zibanejad · Goal · xG 0.10M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.10A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.10C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.10A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.10A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.09C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.09R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.09A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.09C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.09C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.08A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.07A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.07C. Blackwell · Missed · xG 0.06R. Strome · Missed · xG 0.06F. Chytil · On goal · xG 0.06R. Strome · Missed · xG 0.05B. Smith · Goal · xG 0.04A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.04V. Kravtsov · On goal · xG 0.04C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.04M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.04R. Lindgren · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lafrenière · Missed · xG 0.03A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.02L. Hajek · Missed · xG 0.02K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.02B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.02K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.02K. Rooney · Missed · xG 0.02K. Rooney · On goal · xG 0.02F. Chytil · On goal · xG 0.01K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01P. Buchnevich · Missed · xG 0.01R. Lindgren · On goal · xG 0.01A. Fox · Missed · xG 0.01V. Kravtsov · On goal · xG 0.01R. Lindgren · On goal · xG 0.01B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.00
NYR3 G · 4.9 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYR
3.61 G
All situations
3 G4.9
3.20 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
0.41 G
Power play
1 G1.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF40%60%NYR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.52 – 4.21

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYR
37
Shots on goal
41
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/2
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
9
13
Hits
25
7
Blocked shots
16
9
Giveaways
8
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000020.29210—24:05
55R. RistolainenD000010.04300—23:06
10H. JokiharjuD000-100.05100—21:12
23S. ReinhartC101030.510105020:06
54M. SamuelssonD000000.00120—19:27
68V. OlofssonL000030.12000—19:04
37C. MittelstadtC011030.350004418:00
53J. SkinnerL000060.460025017:15
72T. ThompsonC000040.4400210016:50
74R. AsplundC000-110.06000016:05
15R. SheahanC000-110.170005315:38
78J. BrysonD000-110.03000—15:14
3W. BorgenD000-200.01310—15:12
91D. CaggiulaL000010.11002—13:12
96A. BjorkL000-230.15110—12:57
25A. RuotsalainenC000-120.24000010:33
13T. RiederL000060.55000—09:41
24D. CozensC000-100.002156009:11
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)41383.9274.30+1.3057:47

Season series

NYR leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).