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Sabres at Rangers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
New York Rangers
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, MSG·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Rangers beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Rangers led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jeff Skinner's goal at 4:22 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 22% to 48%. Expected goals favored the Rangers, 5.0 to 2.0; shots on goal were BUF 19, NYR 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 33 of 37 (.892); Keith Kinkaid stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Adam Fox (1 G, 2 A), 2. Chris Kreider (2 G), 3. Artemi Panarin (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYR
    A. Fox1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NYR
    C. Kreider2 G
  3. ★★★
    NYR
    A. Panarin3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF051826319
NYRNYR010317213540

Scoring

8 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    R. Asplund(2)
    R. Sheahan (3), V. Olofsson (12)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    3:52
  2. NYR
    K. Kakko(3)
    A. Panarin (18)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    7:13
  3. NYR
    C. Kreider(15)PPG
    A. Panarin (19), A. Fox (17)
    tip-inxG 0.17win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    10:39
  4. NYR
    A. Fox(3)
    M. Zibanejad (13), P. Buchnevich (18)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    18:18

3rd period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(4)
    S. Reinhart (9)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    1:09
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(3)
    B. Montour (7)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +26 pts
    3-3
    4:22
  3. NYR
    C. Kreider(16)PPG
    R. Strome (15), A. Fox (18)
    slapxG 0.24win prob +21 pts
    3-4
    5:47
  4. NYR
    K. Kakko(4)EN
    A. Panarin (20), R. Strome (16)
    wristxG 0.65win prob +5 pts
    3-5
    19:02

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·NYR 6 PIM

1st

  • 18:26NYRJacob Trouba · Hookingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min

2nd

  • 8:42BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Kevin Rooney2 min
  • 8:42NYRBrendan Lemieux · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 8:42BUFTage Thompson · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Brendan Lemieux2 min
  • 10:23BUFJacob Bryson · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Strome2 min
  • 11:07NYRPavel Buchnevich · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Montour2 min

3rd

  • 4:57BUFCasey Mittelstadt · High stickingdrawn by Julien Gauthier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYR goalBUF goalFinal: NYR 100%

Biggest swing: Jeff Skinner, 3rd 4:22 — BUF 22% → 48%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Kakko · Goal · xG 0.65A. Fox · Goal · xG 0.40C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.30C. Kreider · Goal · xG 0.24A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.22R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.20M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.19C. Kreider · Goal · xG 0.17J. Gauthier · On goal · xG 0.16R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.16M. Zibanejad · Missed · xG 0.14A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.10M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.10K. Kakko · Goal · xG 0.10C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.10C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.10M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.09A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.09K. Kakko · On goal · xG 0.09A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.08R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.08R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.08K. Kakko · On goal · xG 0.08F. Chytil · On goal · xG 0.07C. Blackwell · Missed · xG 0.07A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.07F. Chytil · Missed · xG 0.07A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.07L. Hajek · On goal · xG 0.06A. Panarin · Missed · xG 0.06R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.06C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.06M. Zibanejad · On goal · xG 0.04R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.04P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.04F. Chytil · Missed · xG 0.03K. Rooney · Missed · xG 0.03K. Rooney · Missed · xG 0.03A. Fox · On goal · xG 0.03R. Lindgren · Missed · xG 0.02A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.02B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.02P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.02A. Panarin · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kakko · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lafrenière · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.01K. Kakko · On goal · xG 0.00B. Lemieux · On goal · xG 0.00
NYR5 G · 5.0 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYR
2.03 G
All situations
4 G5.0
1.73 G
Even strength
2 G2.8
0.30 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF17%83%NYR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.96 – 4.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYR
19
Shots on goal
40
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/2
Power play
2/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
15
Hits
18
18
Blocked shots
15
7
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000-200.03230—24:44
62B. MontourD011+210.04230—21:40
23S. ReinhartC011000.0100010021:10
4T. HallL000010.03000—20:48
78J. BrysonD000-210.24122—20:46
24D. CozensC101+110.081006319:12
26R. DahlinD000020.08312—18:57
27C. LazarC000010.350204418:29
10H. JokiharjuD000+200.00120—17:16
53J. SkinnerL101060.30110—16:55
37C. MittelstadtC000000.001225015:46
33C. MillerD000000.00220—15:21
12E. StaalC000-120.280006013:48
15R. SheahanC011010.01000011:51
68V. OlofssonL011000.16000—11:44
72T. ThompsonC000020.12102010:25
74R. AsplundC101010.25000009:24
20C. EakinC000-100.000005608:06
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31D. Tokarski(L)37334.8924.13+0.1356:23
40C. Hutton2201.0000.18+0.1802:53

Season series

NYR leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).