Skip to content
Penguins at Sabres
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV NBC·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evan Rodrigues's goal at 5:57 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 64% to 81%. Expected goals were close — PIT 2.1, BUF 2.3; shots on goal were PIT 41, BUF 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Dustin Tokarski stopped 38 of 41 (.927), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tristan Jarry (28 saves, .933), 2. Jared McCann (1 G), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    T. Jarry28 saves, .933
  2. ★★
    PIT
    J. McCann1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT112213016341
BUFBUF06113111230

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    J. McCann(12)
    M. Matheson (10), C. Ceci (10)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    10:30

2nd period

  1. PIT
    E. Rodrigues(6)
    T. Blueger (13)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    5:57
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    6:41
  3. PIT
    B. Rust(17)PPG
    S. Crosby (33), J. Guentzel (26)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    12:15

3rd period

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(8)PPG
    R. Ristolainen (10), S. Reinhart (13)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    3-2
    11:44

Penalties

PIT 2 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:31BUFArttu Ruotsalainen · Hookingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min

2nd

  • 10:30BUFAnders Bjork · High stickingdrawn by John Marino2 min

3rd

  • 10:54PITMark Jankowski · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPIT goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Evan Rodrigues, 2nd 5:57 — PIT 64% → 81%

Game flow

expected goals, added up
PIT 2.12BUF 2.30dots are goals · empty-net attempts left out
PeriodPIT xGAttGBUF xGAttG
1st0.762210.2170
2nd0.871521.19141
3rd0.491700.90191

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.33A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.23S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.15D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.14C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.13A. Bjork · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.09J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.08A. Bjork · Missed · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.07V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.07A. Ruotsalainen · Missed · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01S. Fogarty · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ruotsalainen · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 2.3 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsBUF
2.13 G
All situations
2 G2.3
1.72 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
0.51 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT46%54%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.11 – 2.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Best chances

by our xG
  1. BUFC. Mittelstadt2nd 15:06 · wrist · 18 ftSaved33%
  2. BUFA. Bjork2nd 0:38 · wrist · 17 ftSaved23%
  3. PITJ. Carter1st 11:58 · wrist · 10 ftSaved15%
  4. PITT. Blueger3rd 4:57 · snap · 32 ftSaved15%
  5. BUFS. Reinhart2nd 3:09 · wrist · 24 ftSaved15%
  6. BUFD. Cozens2nd 10:02 · wrist · 10 ftSaved14%

The chance each attempt scores, from where and how it was taken. Empty-net attempts are left out.

Team stats

PITvsBUF
41
Shots on goal
30
47%
Faceoffs
53%
1/2
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
12
14
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
4
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
58K. LetangD000030.10110—24:20
59J. GuentzelC011020.13000021:24
87S. CrosbyC011010.110005021:03
17B. RustR101050.33410—20:50
8B. DumoulinD000030.07000—20:40
4C. CeciD011010.03020—19:34
5M. MathesonD011070.12030—19:03
6J. MarinoD000+100.00020—17:28
77J. CarterC000020.260005616:35
53T. BluegerC011+110.200104316:15
9E. RodriguesC101+150.30000016:09
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000+120.07110—15:30
28M. PetterssonD000+110.04110—15:26
19J. McCannL101050.22210—15:22
16J. ZuckerL000000.02200—13:59
7C. SceviourC000010.01110010:06
14M. JankowskiL000000.001022508:10
67R. ZohornaL000020.11000—07:23
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Jarry(W)30282.9332.30+0.3059:53

Season series

PIT leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).