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Sabres at Penguins
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸5
FinalTV NBCSN, SN·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Marino's goal at 17:29 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 74% to 90%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.4 to 2.1; shots on goal were BUF 28, PIT 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 37 of 42 (.881), 1.6 goals below expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 26 of 28 (.929). Three stars: 1. Sidney Crosby (1 G, 1 A), 2. Zachary Aston-Reese (1 G, 1 A), 3. Frederick Gaudreau (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    S. Crosby1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    PIT
    Z. Aston-Reese1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    F. Gaudreau1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11206110228
PITPIT22121318542

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    E. Rodrigues(3)
    S. Lafferty (3), M. Jankowski (3)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    7:36
  2. PIT
    K. Letang(6)
    S. Crosby (21), B. Rust (13)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    15:44
  3. BUF
    R. Dahlin(2)
    B. Montour (8), T. Hall (15)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    17:17

2nd period

  1. PIT
    J. Marino(2)
    J. McCann (6), Z. Aston-Reese (2)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    17:29
  2. PIT
    Z. Aston-Reese(7)SHG
    F. Gaudreau (1)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    19:36

3rd period

  1. PIT
    S. Crosby(13)
    J. Guentzel (18), M. Matheson (3)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +2 pts
    1-5
    3:57
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(9)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.34
    2-5
    14:35

Penalties

BUF 10 PIM·PIT 6 PIM

1st

  • 19:34BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Cross checkingdrawn by Anthony Angello2 min

2nd

  • 5:41BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Interferencedrawn by Sam Lafferty2 min
  • 13:55PITJohn Marino · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 14:31BUFRasmus Dahlin · Trippingdrawn by Colton Sceviour2 min
  • 19:04PITMark Jankowski · Interferencedrawn by Colin Miller2 min

3rd

  • 2:19BUFJacob Bryson · Hookingdrawn by Jared McCann2 min
  • 3:17PITKris Letang · Hookingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 14:35PITMike Matheson · Ps holding on breakawaydrawn by Victor Olofsson0 min
  • 18:30BUFEric Staal · Cross checkingdrawn by John Marino2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBUF goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: John Marino, 2nd 17:29 — PIT 74% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Crosby · Goal · xG 0.22Z. Aston-Reese · Goal · xG 0.21E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.19A. Angello · On goal · xG 0.13J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.11K. Letang · Goal · xG 0.11B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.10B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.10E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.10K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.10S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.10S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.09S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.09S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.09E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.07J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.07J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.06J. Marino · Goal · xG 0.06J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.06B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.05B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.05K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.05S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.05S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.04F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.03F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03B. Dumoulin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Dumoulin · Missed · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.02M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT5 G · 3.4 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPIT
2.12 G
All situations
5 G3.4
1.42 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.50 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF28%72%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.05 – 3.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPIT
28
Shots on goal
42
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/3
Power play
0/5
10
Penalty minutes
6
33
Hits
17
16
Blocked shots
4
2
Giveaways
7
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000-100.00524—22:06
53J. SkinnerL000-110.06100—20:30
12E. StaalC000-130.351125718:33
23S. ReinhartC000050.550005018:23
62B. MontourD011050.08200—18:20
4T. HallL011-120.15010—18:13
33C. MillerD000-200.01420—17:36
24D. CozensC000000.002003817:19
15R. SheahanC000-100.001107516:58
37C. MittelstadtC000-320.210008016:24
44M. IrwinD000-120.04430—16:06
26R. DahlinD101-220.08512—15:29
78J. BrysonD000010.01132—15:24
68V. OlofssonL101-210.41100—15:20
27C. LazarC000-110.053103614:56
10H. JokiharjuD000-120.08200—13:47
20C. EakinC000-110.020102512:52
74R. AsplundC000000.00100002:00
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31D. Tokarski(L)42375.8813.38-1.6260:00

Season series

PIT leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).