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Penguins at Sabres
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV ATTSN-PT, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 8:46 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 35% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 2.6 to 1.8; shots on goal were PIT 27, BUF 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Jonas Johansson stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Evgeni Malkin (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jake Guentzel (1 G), 3. Brandon Tanev (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    E. Malkin1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel1 G
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    B. Tanev1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT1921325527
BUFBUF161908223

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    E. Malkin(7)
    K. Kapanen (11)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    6:27
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(1)
    K. Okposo (1), C. Eakin (3)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    6:54

2nd period

  1. PIT
    B. Tanev(6)
    T. Blueger (10)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    3:24
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(8)
    R. Sheahan (2), E. Staal (7)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    8:46
  3. PIT
    J. Guentzel(9)PPG
    S. Crosby (16), E. Malkin (14)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    3-2
    11:36

3rd period

  1. PIT
    A. Angello(1)
    C. Sceviour (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +7 pts
    4-2
    2:43
  2. PIT
    B. Rust(9)EN
    T. Jarry (3)
    wristxG 0.69win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    18:45

Penalties

PIT 9 PIM·BUF 19 PIM

1st

  • 1:41BUFMatt Irwin · Interferencedrawn by Evgeni Malkin2 min
  • 15:33PITMike Matheson · Trippingdrawn by Sam Reinhart2 min

2nd

  • 10:32BUFJacob Bryson · Hookingdrawn by Bryan Rust2 min

3rd

  • 2:27PITZachary Aston-Reese · Fightingdrawn by Colin Miller5 min
  • 2:27BUFColin Miller · Fightingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese5 min
  • 10:28PITMarcus Pettersson · Hookingdrawn by Riley Sheahan2 min
  • 18:45BUFTaylor Hall · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPIT goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 2nd 8:46 — BUF 35% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.17V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.15J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.13D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.12V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.10R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.09V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.08T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.07R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.07J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.05B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.03B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.03E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.03J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.03J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.03T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.02J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01
BUF2 G · 1.8 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsBUF
2.64 G
All situations
2 G1.8
1.33 G
Even strength
2 G1.1
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT45%55%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.51 – 1.76

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsBUF
27
Shots on goal
23
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/2
Power play
0/2
9
Penalty minutes
19
9
Hits
17
8
Blocked shots
9
2
Giveaways
12
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
58K. LetangD000040.12000—24:26
4C. CeciD000+110.03000—23:01
5M. MathesonD000+110.01112—20:44
71E. MalkinC112+220.400003318:58
8B. DumoulinD000000.02320—18:50
17B. RustR101-120.81000—18:08
59J. GuentzelC101-210.09000017:44
42K. KapanenR011+120.09000—17:40
87S. CrosbyC011-230.070105817:28
28M. PetterssonD000+100.00012—16:42
9E. RodriguesC000+220.030004016:38
53T. BluegerC011+110.010103315:56
13B. TanevL101+120.21000—13:51
2C. RuhwedelD000+110.01210—13:35
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000+110.08115—12:39
14M. JankowskiL000+120.030001711:12
57A. AngelloC101+120.16200009:52
7C. SceviourC011+100.00000008:36
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Jarry(W)23212.9131.76-0.2460:00

Season series

PIT leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).