Canadiens at Maple Leafs 2-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Montréal Canadiens

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸3

FinalTV NBCSN, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Montréal Canadiens 3-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was TJ Brodie's goal at 2:32 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.4 to 2.2; shots on goal were MTL 34, TOR 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Jack Campbell stopped 32 of 34 (.941). Three stars: 1. Jack Campbell (32 saves, .941), 2. Zach Hyman (1 G, 1 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
J. Campbell32 saves, .941
★★
Z. Hyman1 G, 1 A
★★★
A. Matthews1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	17	017	110	234
TOR	113	04	215	332

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

A. Matthews(28)
I. Mikheyev (7), Z. Hyman (15)
wrap-aroundxG 0.05win prob +11 pts
0-1
0:54
C. Perry(8)
N. Suzuki (17), J. Edmundson (9)
wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
1-1
2:15

3rd period

T. Brodie(1)
A. Barabanov (1), W. Simmonds (2)
wristxG 0.09win prob +25 pts
1-2
2:32
Z. Hyman(13)
A. Matthews (20), M. Marner (35)
wristxG 0.26win prob +13 pts
1-3
10:21
C. Perry(9)
J. Anderson (6), T. Toffoli (11)
wristxG 0.13win prob +6 pts
2-3
17:45

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

9:18served by C. Perry · Too many men on the ice2 min
10:25Jake Evans · Slashingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min

2nd

15:13Auston Matthews · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min

3rd

12:03Travis Dermott · Trippingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

100%

Biggest swing: TJ Brodie, 3rd 2:32 — TOR 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 3.4 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.2 xG · 44 att TOR

3 G · 3.4 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.22 G
All situations: 3 G3.4; 1.82 G
Even strength: 3 G3.2; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.1; 0.10 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

31%69%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.16 – 3.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

34
Shots on goal: 32; 56%
Faceoffs: 44%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 20
Hits: 12; 16
Blocked shots: 20; 13
Giveaways: 29; 6
Takeaways: 12

Box score

every player line

Montréal Canadiens skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
26J. PetryD	0	0	0	0	4	0.27	5	2	0	—	25:58
6S. WeberD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.07	0	1	0	—	23:18
44J. EdmundsonD	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	3	2	0	—	21:01
14N. SuzukiC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.01	0	0	0	46	19:36
94C. PerryR	2	0	2	+1	3	0.32	1	1	0	—	18:18
90T. TatarL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.20	1	0	0	—	17:59
77B. KulakD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	2	0	—	17:31
21E. StaalC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.20	0	0	0	67	17:15
17J. AndersonR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.16	3	1	0	—	17:04
73T. ToffoliC	0	1	1	0	3	0.24	3	0	0	0	16:52
24P. DanaultC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.12	1	0	0	53	16:24
15J. KotkaniemiC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	2	2	0	50	15:50
92J. DrouinL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.19	0	0	0	50	15:49
27A. RomanovD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.03	0	1	0	—	15:37
53V. MeteD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	0	1	0	—	11:53
62A. LehkonenL	0	0	0	0	2	0.16	0	2	0	100	10:46
41P. ByronL	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	0	1	0	—	10:11
71J. EvansC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	60	07:11

Montréal Canadiens goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
34J. Allen(L)	32	29	3	.906	3.38	+0.38	57:32

Season series

TOR leads 7-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Montréal Canadiens at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score