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Maple Leafs at Canadiens
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Montréal Canadiens

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Montréal Canadiens
3
FinalTV ESPN+, CBC·Centre Bell

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Montréal Canadiens 5-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitch Marner's goal at 7:31 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were TOR 27, MTL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.8 goals below expected; Carey Price stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (2 G, 2 A), 2. Mitch Marner (1 G, 2 A), 3. Paul Byron (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    MTL
    P. Byron1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0134816527
MTLMTL01021617333

Scoring

8 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(17)PPG
    M. Marner (20), M. Rielly (13)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    1:03
  2. TOR
    T. Boyd(3)PPG
    J. Thornton (6), A. Matthews (10)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    1:20
  3. MTL
    J. Kotkaniemi(2)
    T. Tatar (5), J. Edmundson (3)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    3:24
  4. MTL
    P. Byron(1)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    3:57
  5. TOR
    M. Marner(9)
    A. Matthews (11), Z. Bogosian (2)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +18 pts
    3-2
    7:31
  6. TOR
    A. Matthews(18)PPG
    M. Rielly (14), M. Marner (21)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    4-2
    15:05

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(4)
    J. Spezza (7), J. Tavares (11)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +3 pts
    5-2
    13:36
  2. MTL
    T. Toffoli(11)
    A. Romanov (3), B. Gallagher (4)
    backhandxG 0.12
    5-3
    18:34

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·MTL 10 PIM

1st

  • 14:14TORZach Bogosian · Slashingdrawn by Tomas Tatar2 min
  • 19:04MTLVictor Mete · Hookingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 19:45MTLBen Chiarot · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 14:24MTLVictor Mete · Trippingdrawn by Ilya Mikheyev2 min

3rd

  • 16:05MTLJosh Anderson · Roughingdrawn by Jake Muzzin2 min
  • 16:05TORJake Muzzin · Interferencedrawn by Josh Anderson2 min
  • 19:42MTLTyler Toffoli · Slashingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MTL goalTOR goalFinal: MTL 0%

Biggest swing: Mitch Marner, 2nd 7:31 — TOR 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.17N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.16P. Byron · Goal · xG 0.14J. Kotkaniemi · Goal · xG 0.14J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.13J. Evans · On goal · xG 0.12T. Toffoli · Goal · xG 0.12T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.12J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.11P. Byron · Missed · xG 0.11J. Armia · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.08B. Gallagher · On goal · xG 0.07B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.06J. Anderson · On goal · xG 0.05S. Weber · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.04N. Suzuki · On goal · xG 0.04J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.03J. Anderson · Missed · xG 0.03S. Weber · On goal · xG 0.03P. Danault · On goal · xG 0.03J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.02B. Gallagher · On goal · xG 0.02S. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02B. Gallagher · Missed · xG 0.02S. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02A. Romanov · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.02J. Anderson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Weber · On goal · xG 0.02A. Romanov · Missed · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.01J. Evans · On goal · xG 0.01J. Edmundson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01
MTL3 G · 2.2 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsMTL
2.55 G
All situations
3 G2.2
1.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.63 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR45%55%MTL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.99 – 2.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsMTL
27
Shots on goal
33
52%
Faceoffs
48%
3/4
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
10
17
Hits
44
12
Blocked shots
10
6
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD022010.01110—23:33
3J. HollD000-220.04010—22:04
78T. BrodieD000000.00010—21:24
16M. MarnerR123+110.18000—20:29
34A. MatthewsC224+140.791105020:21
8J. MuzzinD000-210.03022—18:53
11Z. HymanL000020.113005018:11
22Z. BogosianD011+100.01512—17:02
91J. TavaresC011010.020007116:14
65I. MikheyevR000020.18200—15:44
23T. DermottD000+120.02010—14:25
97J. ThorntonC011010.050006714:14
15A. KerfootC101+110.14000014:06
47P. EngvallL000030.281004214:04
88W. NylanderR000020.36000—13:55
72T. BoydC101-220.25030011:36
26J. VeseyL000-310.02210—10:26
19J. SpezzaC011-110.022004009:37
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(W)33303.9092.23-0.7759:42

Season series

TOR leads 7-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).