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Sabres at Devils
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
New Jersey Devils
3
FinalTV MSG+, MSG-B·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New Jersey Devils 5-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Casey Mittelstadt's goal at 10:20 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Devils, 3.0 to 2.2; shots on goal were BUF 18, NJD 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Devils win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 27 of 30 (.900); Scott Wedgewood stopped 13 of 17 (.765), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Casey Mittelstadt (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jesper Bratt (1 G, 1 A), 3. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Mittelstadt1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NJD
    J. Bratt1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF251924518
NJDNJD27113010330

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. NJD
    D. Severson(3)
    T. Thompson (1), M. Maltsev (1)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:22
  2. BUF
    R. Asplund(4)
    C. Mittelstadt (6)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:56
  3. BUF
    B. Montour(5)
    T. Thompson (3), C. Miller (4)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:17
  4. NJD
    J. Bratt(5)PPG
    T. Zajac (11), P. Zacha (14)
    deflectedxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
    2-2
    19:59

2nd period

  1. NJD
    P. Zacha(8)
    J. Bratt (16), M. Wood (5)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +19 pts
    2-3
    11:03
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(3)
    R. Sheahan (6), K. Okposo (9)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    15:19

3rd period

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(4)PPG
    R. Dahlin (12)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +29 pts
    4-3
    10:20
  2. BUF
    R. Ristolainen(4)EN
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.48win prob +7 pts
    5-3
    18:29

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·NJD 4 PIM

1st

  • 19:45BUFBrandon Montour · Trippingdrawn by Nick Merkley2 min

2nd

  • 6:13BUFSteven Fogarty · Trippingdrawn by Ty Smith2 min
  • 15:54BUFColin Miller · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 2:42NJDSami Vatanen · Interferencedrawn by Colin Miller2 min
  • 9:03NJDYegor Sharangovich · Trippingdrawn by Henri Jokiharju2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NJD goalBUF goalFinal: NJD 0%

Biggest swing: Casey Mittelstadt, 3rd 10:20 — BUF 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.20T. Zajac · Missed · xG 0.18J. Hughes · Missed · xG 0.17T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.17J. Kuokkanen · On goal · xG 0.16J. Bratt · Goal · xG 0.15M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.15Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.15P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.12D. Severson · Goal · xG 0.12M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.10S. Vatanen · On goal · xG 0.10J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.09M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.08J. Hughes · Missed · xG 0.07Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.07J. Bratt · On goal · xG 0.07Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.06M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.06J. Kuokkanen · Missed · xG 0.06A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.06N. Merkley · On goal · xG 0.06M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.05J. Kuokkanen · Missed · xG 0.05P. Zacha · Goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.04T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04M. Maltsev · Missed · xG 0.03M. Maltsev · On goal · xG 0.03T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bratt · Missed · xG 0.03D. Severson · Missed · xG 0.02P. Subban · Missed · xG 0.02N. Merkley · On goal · xG 0.02T. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.01S. Vatanen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Murray · Missed · xG 0.01M. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.01P. Zacha · On goal · xG 0.01M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01P. Subban · On goal · xG 0.01
NJD3 G · 3.0 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNJD
2.24 G
All situations
3 G3.0
1.43 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF27%73%NJD

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.75 – 3.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNJD
18
Shots on goal
30
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
12
7
Blocked shots
6
5
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD101+220.48610—24:21
78J. BrysonD000+200.00010—20:46
23S. ReinhartC000-100.000005719:40
26R. DahlinD112010.13300—19:09
62B. MontourD101020.19112—17:48
68V. OlofssonL000020.18110—17:39
33C. MillerD011010.07002—17:25
15R. SheahanC011+100.000007716:52
13T. RiederL000+110.08200—16:47
37C. MittelstadtC112+110.320005516:47
10H. JokiharjuD000010.03110—16:17
21K. OkposoR011+100.002003316:13
20C. EakinC000+100.000003815:33
72T. ThompsonC011+240.60100015:25
17S. FogartyC000000.001126715:12
74R. AsplundC101+120.14200014:07
53J. SkinnerL000-110.01010—10:53
44M. IrwinD000000.00100—04:52
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(W)30273.9003.03+0.0360:00

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).