Sabres at Devils 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Buffalo Sabres

▸4

New Jersey Devils

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Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New Jersey Devils 4-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 10:20 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 48% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were BUF 37, NJD 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 41 of 42 (.976), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 33 of 36 (.917). Three stars: 1. Linus Ullmark (41 saves, .976), 2. Victor Olofsson (1 G), 3. Sam Reinhart (2 A).

Three stars

★
L. Ullmark41 saves, .976
★★
V. Olofsson1 G
★★★
S. Reinhart2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	012	113	312	437
NJD	015	06	121	142

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

V. Olofsson(7)PPG
R. Dahlin (6), S. Reinhart (6)
slapxG 0.10win prob +18 pts
1-0
10:20

3rd period

R. Asplund(1)
S. Reinhart (7), J. Eichel (12)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
2-0
5:16
D. Cozens(3)
T. Hall (10), E. Staal (4)
backhandxG 0.28win prob +6 pts
3-0
6:50
N. Gusev(2)
P. Subban (5), P. Zacha (5)
snapxG 0.10
3-1
19:32
C. Eakin(1)EN
K. Okposo (1)
snapxG 0.62
4-1
19:59

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

3:17Michael McLeod · Trippingdrawn by Riley Sheahan2 min
5:45Jacob Bryson · Trippingdrawn by Jack Hughes2 min
8:27Sami Vatanen · Trippingdrawn by Taylor Hall2 min

3rd

17:10Victor Olofsson · Holdingdrawn by Jack Hughes2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NJD

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 2nd 10:20 — BUF 48% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.6 xG · 51 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.7 xG · 50 att NJD

1 G · 2.6 xG · 51 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.73 G
All situations: 1 G2.6; 2.52 G
Even strength: 1 G2.1; 0.61 G
Power play: 0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

58%42%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.02 – 2.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

37
Shots on goal: 42; 50%
Faceoffs: 50%; 1/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 18
Hits: 20; 13
Blocked shots: 10; 4
Giveaways: 10; 5
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Buffalo Sabres skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
26R. DahlinD	0	1	1	0	3	0.09	0	2	0	—	23:31
44M. IrwinD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	1	2	0	—	19:47
62B. MontourD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.11	1	2	0	—	19:31
10H. JokiharjuD	0	0	0	0	2	0.04	0	2	0	—	18:56
68V. OlofssonL	1	0	1	-1	2	0.31	1	0	2	100	18:19
23S. ReinhartC	0	2	2	+1	2	0.15	1	0	0	100	17:59
78J. BrysonD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.15	1	1	2	—	17:59
9J. EichelC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.29	2	1	0	33	17:31
4T. HallL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.24	0	0	0	—	17:28
33C. MillerD	0	0	0	0	2	0.08	3	0	0	—	16:40
12E. StaalC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.14	0	0	0	43	14:42
24D. CozensC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.41	1	1	0	100	14:33
20C. EakinC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.88	0	1	0	62	14:06
27C. LazarC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.24	1	0	0	67	13:41
15R. SheahanC	0	0	0	-1	4	0.20	1	0	0	50	13:27
21K. OkposoR	0	1	1	+1	5	0.11	2	1	0	—	13:02
37C. MittelstadtC	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	1	0	0	0	12:33
74R. AsplundC	1	0	1	+2	1	0.07	2	0	0	0	12:15

Buffalo Sabres goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35L. Ullmark(W)	42	41	1	.976	2.60	+1.60	60:00

Season series

Tied 4-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score