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Lightning at Stars
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Dallas Stars
▸4
FinalTV FS-SW, SUN·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3. The Stars came back from two goals down. The Stars led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roope Hintz's goal at 18:39 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 52% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 27, DAL 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 37 of 41 (.902); Jake Oettinger stopped 24 of 27 (.889). Three stars: 1. Roope Hintz (1 G, 2 A), 2. Joe Pavelski (1 G, 2 A), 3. Jason Robertson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    R. Hintz1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Robertson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0421419327
DALDAL01132119441

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TBL
    Y. Gourde(13)
    C. Foote (1), O. Palat (19)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    2:46
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(10)
    A. Cirelli (12), M. Sergachev (20)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    5:58
  3. DAL
    M. Heiskanen(4)
    B. Comeau (6)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    10:54
  4. DAL
    J. Pavelski(15)PPG
    R. Hintz (10), J. Klingberg (15)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +23 pts
    2-2
    18:40
  5. DAL
    J. Robertson(5)
    J. Pavelski (16), R. Hintz (11)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    2-3
    19:44

3rd period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(12)
    Y. Gourde (10), J. Rutta (7)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +38 pts
    3-3
    15:10
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(10)
    J. Robertson (15), J. Pavelski (17)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +43 pts
    3-4
    18:39

Penalties

TBL 11 PIM·DAL 5 PIM

2nd

  • 7:31TBLLuke Schenn · Holdingdrawn by Rhett Gardner2 min
  • 17:14DALJamie Oleksiak · Fightingdrawn by Luke Schenn5 min
  • 17:14TBLLuke Schenn · Fightingdrawn by Jamie Oleksiak5 min
  • 18:33TBLAnthony Cirelli · High stickingdrawn by Jamie Benn2 min

3rd

  • 9:32TBLserved by P. Maroon · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalTBL goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Roope Hintz, 3rd 18:39 — DAL 52% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.30R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.27D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.22J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.20M. Heiskanen · Goal · xG 0.18R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.15J. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.14J. Pavelski · Goal · xG 0.14J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.13R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.13J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.13J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.12J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.12J. L'Esperance · Missed · xG 0.11R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.10A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.10J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.10A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.09J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.09B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.09J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.08J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.08M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.06J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.06J. L'Esperance · Missed · xG 0.06R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.05J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.04J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.04E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.03A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.03M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oleksiak · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Gardner · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01J. L'Esperance · Missed · xG 0.01D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01J. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.01J. L'Esperance · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.00J. Dowling · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 4.0 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDAL
2.53 G
All situations
4 G4.0
2.53 G
Even strength
3 G3.3
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL28%72%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.53 – 3.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDAL
27
Shots on goal
41
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/0
Power play
1/3
11
Penalty minutes
5
23
Hits
23
13
Blocked shots
12
13
Giveaways
12
1
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD011030.13020—26:12
77V. HedmanD000030.04100—25:03
52C. FooteD011+120.02110—23:52
44J. RuttaD011050.15200—22:55
71A. CirelliC011-110.143225020:13
21B. PointC000-110.170104019:28
91S. StamkosC000-110.221103619:17
18O. PalatL112+140.71000—19:04
17A. KillornL101-120.42000—16:43
37Y. GourdeC112+220.281004716:19
9T. JohnsonC000000.002205015:14
19B. GoodrowC000000.002007514:18
20B. ColemanL000010.06100—14:05
5A. BorgmanD000-100.00110—11:47
7M. JosephR000+110.18010—11:15
14P. MaroonL000000.00200—10:46
2L. SchennD000010.01627—10:26
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)41374.9024.02+0.0258:56

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).