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Stars at Lightning
NHL

Dallas Stars at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸5
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
FinalTV BSSW+, BSSUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joe Pavelski's goal at 13:05 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 68% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 2.3 to 1.7; shots on goal were DAL 31, TBL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 25 of 27 (.926); Curtis McElhinney stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joe Pavelski (2 G, 2 A), 2. Roope Hintz (1 G, 2 A), 3. Joel Kiviranta (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    R. Hintz1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Kiviranta1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL111310110531
TBLTBL0611417227

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Oleksiak(6)
    M. Heiskanen (18), T. Kero (7)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    5:50

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(23)
    R. Hintz (27)
    backhandxG 0.19win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    5:17
  2. TBL
    B. Coleman(14)
    V. Hedman (36), B. Goodrow (13)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    11:11
  3. DAL
    J. Pavelski(24)
    R. Hintz (28)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    13:05
  4. DAL
    R. Hintz(15)
    J. Kiviranta (5), J. Pavelski (25)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +8 pts
    4-1
    19:45

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Kiviranta(5)
    J. Pavelski (26), J. Benn (21)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +2 pts
    5-1
    3:49
  2. TBL
    A. Barré-Boulet(3)PPG
    O. Palat (31), A. Killorn (18)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +1 pts
    5-2
    8:29

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·TBL 2 PIM

1st

  • 8:36TBLBlake Coleman · High stickingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min
  • 16:49DALJason Dickinson · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 3:08DALJoe Pavelski · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

3rd

  • 5:52DALEsa Lindell · Boardingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 7:58DALJoel Hanley · Trippingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalDAL goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Joe Pavelski, 2nd 13:05 — DAL 68% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Barré-Boulet · Goal · xG 0.21B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.10B. Coleman · Goal · xG 0.10P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.09O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.07R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.07B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.07A. Barré-Boulet · On goal · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.06B. Goodrow · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.06O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.05M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04A. Barré-Boulet · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.04P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.04D. Savard · On goal · xG 0.04A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03J. Rutta · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02D. Savard · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL2 G · 1.7 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsTBL
2.35 G
All situations
2 G1.7
2.35 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL62%38%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.28 – 1.69

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
27
63%
Faceoffs
38%
0/1
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
2
22
Hits
28
10
Blocked shots
16
1
Giveaways
3
5
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD011+120.08210—25:17
23E. LindellD000+420.07102—24:21
2J. OleksiakD101+130.37120—23:39
3J. KlingbergD000-120.01000—18:18
12R. FaksaC000000.012108317:41
91T. SeguinC000030.162006916:04
18J. DickinsonC000-110.033022015:54
15B. ComeauL000-150.311107515:53
5A. SekeraD000+410.02010—15:52
14J. BennL011+210.011107815:38
21J. RobertsonL000020.19110—15:23
24R. HintzC123+420.232005015:06
11A. CoglianoC000-100.00000014:34
16J. PavelskiC224+540.561124213:13
25J. KivirantaL112+310.23110—13:07
34D. GurianovR000010.03200—11:37
44J. HanleyD000-110.01002—11:34
64T. KeroC011+100.00200010:18
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35A. Khudobin(W)27252.9261.70-0.3060:00

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).