Lightning at Stars 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸2

Dallas Stars

FinalTV ESPN+, FS-SW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Dallas Stars 2-1. The Stars scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yanni Gourde's goal at 12:44 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 47% to 67%. Expected goals were close — TBL 1.9, DAL 2.1; shots on goal were TBL 26, DAL 17. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 16 of 17 (.941), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Anton Khudobin stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy (16 saves, .941), 2. Roope Hintz (1 G), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Vasilevskiy16 saves, .941
★★
R. Hintz1 G
★★★
S. Stamkos1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	09	210	07	226
DAL	16	01	010	117

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

R. Hintz(9)PPG
J. Robertson (14), J. Pavelski (15)
backhandxG 0.18win prob +9 pts
0-1
4:32

2nd period

S. Stamkos(16)PPG
V. Hedman (27), O. Palat (18)
slapxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
1-1
8:08
Y. Gourde(12)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.09win prob +20 pts
2-1
12:44

Penalties

8 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

3:33Erik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min

2nd

4:40Jamie Oleksiak · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
7:10Jamie Benn · Holdingdrawn by Andreas Borgman2 min

3rd

6:03Radek Faksa · Holdingdrawn by Andreas Borgman2 min
6:14Alex Killorn · Slashingdrawn by Andrej Sekera2 min
11:55Mikhail Sergachev · Interferencedrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min
12:26Blake Coleman · Hookingdrawn by John Klingberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DAL

Biggest swing: Yanni Gourde, 2nd 12:44 — TBL 47% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.1 xG · 33 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.9 xG · 40 att DAL

1 G · 2.1 xG · 33 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.92 G
All situations: 1 G2.1; 1.51 G
Even strength: 0 G1.1; 0.41 G
Power play: 1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

46%54%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.87 – 2.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 17; 52%
Faceoffs: 48%; 1/3
Power play: 1/4; 8
Penalty minutes: 6; 19
Hits: 26; 15
Blocked shots: 16; 10
Giveaways: 11; 6
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
77V. HedmanD	0	1	1	0	5	0.29	0	3	0	—	26:05
81E. CernakD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.07	1	2	2	—	23:56
98M. SergachevD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.19	2	1	2	—	20:36
44J. RuttaD	0	0	0	0	0	0.04	1	2	0	—	20:33
17A. KillornL	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	2	—	19:37
71A. CirelliC	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	0	0	64	19:20
21B. PointC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	75	17:05
91S. StamkosC	1	0	1	0	3	0.35	3	0	0	67	16:30
18O. PalatL	0	1	1	0	2	0.04	1	1	0	—	16:14
19B. GoodrowC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.05	2	2	0	63	15:20
37Y. GourdeC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.09	1	2	0	29	14:52
5A. BorgmanD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	1	1	0	—	14:13
20B. ColemanL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.10	3	0	2	100	14:05
9T. JohnsonC	0	0	0	0	3	0.38	0	0	0	20	13:55
52C. FooteD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	—	11:52
14P. MaroonL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	09:49
92A. VolkovR	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	1	0	0	—	09:35
7M. JosephR	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	0	0	33	09:24

Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)	17	16	1	.941	2.08	+1.08	60:00

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars

1st period

2nd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score