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Wild at Golden Knights
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Vegas Golden Knights

Final/OTTV ATTSN-RM, FS-N·T-Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vegas Golden Knights beat the Minnesota Wild 5-4 in overtime, Max Pacioretty scoring at 2:00. The Golden Knights came back from two goals down. The Wild led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Max Pacioretty's goal at 2:00 of overtime, which took the Golden Knights' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Golden Knights, 3.5 to 2.0; shots on goal were MIN 30, VGK 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Golden Knights win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 34 of 39 (.872), 1.5 goals below expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mark Stone (5 A), 2. Max Pacioretty (2 G, 1 A), 3. Alex Tuch (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VGK
    M. Stone5 A
  2. ★★
    VGK
    M. Pacioretty2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    VGK
    A. Tuch1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
MINMIN0114160300430
VGKVGK01221521111539

Scoring

9 goals

2nd period

  1. VGK
    C. Glass(3)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    7:09
  2. MIN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.28win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    8:51
  3. MIN
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +19 pts
    2-1
    9:57
  4. VGK
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    13:41
  5. MIN
    wristxG 0.43win prob +23 pts
    3-2
    17:53
  6. MIN
    slapxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    18:12

3rd period

  1. VGK
    slapxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    4-3
    12:40
  2. VGK
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +46 pts
    4-4
    19:18

Overtime

  1. VGK
    snapxG 0.29win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    2:00

Penalties

MIN 6 PIM·VGK 0 PIM

1st

  • 14:24MINMathew Dumba · Holding the stickdrawn by William Carrier2 min

2nd

  • 6:02MINMats Zuccarello · Hookingdrawn by Chandler Stephenson2 min
  • 12:59MINserved by K. Fiala · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VGK goalMIN goalFinal: VGK 100%

Biggest swing: Max Pacioretty, OT 2:00 — VGK 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Pacioretty · Goal · xG 0.29M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.22W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.19J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.18S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.17W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.17W. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.13J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.13J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.13A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.12C. Glass · Goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.09J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.09T. Nosek · On goal · xG 0.08R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.07M. Pacioretty · Goal · xG 0.07C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.06C. Glass · Missed · xG 0.06T. Nosek · Missed · xG 0.06M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.05S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kolesar · On goal · xG 0.05M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.05M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kolesar · Missed · xG 0.04N. Hague · Goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.04J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.03S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.03M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.03W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.03W. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.03J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.03A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.03M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Whitecloud · Missed · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02S. Theodore · Missed · xG 0.02A. Martinez · Missed · xG 0.02R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · Missed · xG 0.02M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.02T. Nosek · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pietrangelo · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pietrangelo · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pacioretty · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Whitecloud · Missed · xG 0.01C. Stephenson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Theodore · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pietrangelo · On goal · xG 0.00
VGK5 G · 3.5 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsVGK
2.04 G
All situations
5 G3.5
2.04 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.00 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN26%74%VGK

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.00 – 3.43

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsVGK
30
Shots on goal
39
40%
Faceoffs
60%
0/0
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
0
12
Hits
26
18
Blocked shots
11
4
Giveaways
1
8
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25J. BrodinD022+320.03010—24:27
24M. DumbaD000+340.14022—23:50
97K. KaprizovL000-130.16010—23:19
46J. SpurgeonD000-210.03120—21:07
20R. SuterD000-110.01020—21:02
36M. ZuccarelloR000000.00012—18:02
14J. Eriksson EkC000000.052104716:49
18J. GreenwayL101-240.46300—16:48
28I. ColeD000030.09120—16:38
22K. FialaL000020.21100—16:34
21C. SoucyD000020.06120—15:03
17M. FolignoL213+320.15100—14:40
49V. RaskC000000.050004514:32
11Z. PariseL011010.03110—13:44
13N. BoninoC101010.430204213:28
7N. SturmC011+220.05000011:52
38R. HartmanR000+210.061102211:00
27N. BjugstadC000010.020007509:16
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33C. Talbot(O)39345.8723.47-1.5362:00

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).