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Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Columbus Blue Jackets
▸4
Final/OTTV NBCSN, FS-O·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime, Pierre-Luc Dubois scoring at 18:24. The Blue Jackets came back from three goals down. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pierre-Luc Dubois's goal at 18:24 of overtime, which took the Blue Jackets' chances from 52% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.5 to 2.8; shots on goal were TOR 36, CBJ 43. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Frederik Andersen stopped 39 of 43 (.907), 1.2 goals below expected; Elvis Merzlikins stopped 21 of 21 (1.000), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Pierre-Luc Dubois (3 G), 2. Seth Jones (1 G), 3. Cody Ceci (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CBJ
    P. Dubois3 G
  2. ★★
    CBJ
    S. Jones1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    C. Ceci1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR192801009336
CBJCBJ06110214113443

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    C. Ceci(1)SHG
    A. Kerfoot (2), K. Kapanen (1)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    18:52

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(1)PPG
    M. Marner (1), A. Matthews (2)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    7:08
  2. TOR
    N. Robertson(1)
    K. Kapanen (2), A. Kerfoot (3)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    3-0
    8:48
  3. CBJ
    P. Dubois(1)
    Z. Werenski (1), C. Atkinson (2)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 pts
    3-1
    11:39

3rd period

  1. CBJ
    S. Jones(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    3-2
    7:27
  2. CBJ
    P. Dubois(2)
    C. Atkinson (3), D. Savard (2)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +33 pts
    3-3
    10:49

Overtime

  1. CBJ
    P. Dubois(3)
    A. Texier (1)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +48 pts
    3-4
    18:24

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·CBJ 4 PIM

1st

  • 17:43TORTravis Dermott · Interferencedrawn by Seth Jones2 min

2nd

  • 6:58CBJGustav Nyquist · Trippingdrawn by Travis Dermott2 min
  • 9:31TORTyson Barrie · Trippingdrawn by Eric Robinson2 min
  • 19:02CBJBoone Jenner · Hookingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

3rd

  • 2:33TORJustin Holl · Trippingdrawn by Liam Foudy2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CBJ goalTOR goalFinal: CBJ 100%

Biggest swing: Pierre-Luc Dubois, OT 18:24 — CBJ 52% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.22B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.21Z. Werenski · Missed · xG 0.19Z. Werenski · On goal · xG 0.13P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.12P. Dubois · Goal · xG 0.11B. Jenner · Missed · xG 0.11P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.11B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.11G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.11A. Texier · On goal · xG 0.10A. Texier · On goal · xG 0.09B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.09A. Texier · On goal · xG 0.08P. Dubois · Goal · xG 0.07Z. Werenski · Missed · xG 0.06O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.06P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.05B. Jenner · Missed · xG 0.04B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.04A. Texier · On goal · xG 0.04R. Nash · On goal · xG 0.04C. Atkinson · Missed · xG 0.03B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.03A. Texier · On goal · xG 0.03P. Dubois · Missed · xG 0.03C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Werenski · On goal · xG 0.03M. Nutivaara · On goal · xG 0.03L. Foudy · On goal · xG 0.03V. Gavrikov · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Werenski · On goal · xG 0.02C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Savard · On goal · xG 0.02A. Texier · Missed · xG 0.02V. Gavrikov · On goal · xG 0.02S. Jones · Goal · xG 0.02P. Dubois · Goal · xG 0.02V. Gavrikov · On goal · xG 0.02O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.02B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.02B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.02S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.02A. Texier · Missed · xG 0.01O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.01L. Foudy · On goal · xG 0.01E. Bemstrom · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Werenski · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01B. Jenner · On goal · xG 0.01R. Nash · Missed · xG 0.01M. Nutivaara · Missed · xG 0.01C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Werenski · On goal · xG 0.01P. Dubois · On goal · xG 0.01O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.01N. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.00C. Atkinson · On goal · xG 0.00
CBJ4 G · 2.8 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCBJ
3.53 G
All situations
4 G2.8
3.31 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.01 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 116 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR62%38%CBJ

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.49 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCBJ
36
Shots on goal
43
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
19
Hits
27
24
Blocked shots
20
12
Giveaways
19
6
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000040.18140—32:26
16M. MarnerR011010.27000—28:00
34A. MatthewsC011-120.261404527:47
83C. CeciD101+120.09320—27:00
11Z. HymanL000040.394008026:52
3J. HollD000-320.03052—26:51
91J. TavaresC000-130.441005525:45
23T. DermottD000-220.03202—24:58
94T. BarrieD000-100.02012—24:45
88W. NylanderR101-240.46010—23:25
65I. MikheyevR000030.35110—23:16
52M. MarincinD000030.06420—19:29
24K. KapanenR022-110.13100—15:25
15A. KerfootC022-100.060302515:08
89N. RobertsonL101010.11010—13:03
47P. EngvallL000010.050006712:15
73K. CliffordL000010.15100—10:34
19J. SpezzaC000020.4200010009:01
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31F. Andersen(L)43394.9072.80-1.2078:24

Series

CBJ leads 3-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).