Sharks at Flames 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

San Jose Sharks

▸3

Calgary Flames

FinalTV NBCSCA, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The San Jose Sharks beat the Calgary Flames 3-1. The Flames scored first; the Sharks answered. The Sharks led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evander Kane's goal at 8:02 of the second period, which took the Sharks' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals were close — SJS 2.3, CGY 2.4; shots on goal were SJS 26, CGY 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Aaron Dell stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.4 goals saved above expected; David Rittich stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Aaron Dell (30 saves, .968), 2. Joe Thornton (2 A), 3. Michael Stone.

Three stars

★
A. Dell30 saves, .968
★★
J. Thornton2 A
★★★
M. Stone

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	09	210	17	326
CGY	016	111	04	131

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

J. Gaudreau(14)PPG
E. Lindholm (18), M. Giordano (22)
wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
0-1
0:59
B. Burns(11)
J. Thornton (19)
slapxG 0.05win prob +16 pts
1-1
3:57
E. Kane(20)
B. Goodrow (14), P. Marleau (10)
snapxG 0.14win prob +18 pts
2-1
8:02

3rd period

K. Labanc(12)
T. Meier (17), J. Thornton (20)
backhandxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
3-1
7:45

Penalties

9 PIM·

7 PIM

1st

10:43Brenden Dillon · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
18:08Barclay Goodrow · Fightingdrawn by Milan Lucic5 min
18:08Milan Lucic · Fightingdrawn by Barclay Goodrow5 min
19:14Evander Kane · High stickingdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min

3rd

15:45TJ Brodie · Hookingdrawn by Patrick Marleau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CGY

Biggest swing: Evander Kane, 2nd 8:02 — SJS 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.4 xG · 38 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.3 xG · 35 att CGY

1 G · 2.4 xG · 38 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.33 G
All situations: 1 G2.4; 2.33 G
Even strength: 0 G2.0; 0.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

49%51%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.27 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 31; 43%
Faceoffs: 57%; 0/1
Power play: 1/2; 9
Penalty minutes: 7; 15
Hits: 20; 16
Blocked shots: 12; 14
Giveaways: 25; 12
Takeaways: 11

Box score

every player line

San Jose Sharks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
65E. KarlssonD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.19	0	6	0	—	26:36
44M. VlasicD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.06	0	1	0	—	24:04
88B. BurnsD	1	0	1	+1	3	0.13	0	1	0	—	23:19
9E. KaneL	1	0	1	+1	3	0.19	1	1	2	50	19:58
4B. DillonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.02	2	0	2	—	18:53
19J. ThorntonC	0	2	2	+2	0	0.00	0	1	0	27	17:35
23B. GoodrowC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	3	1	5	53	16:57
62K. LabancR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.17	0	0	0	—	16:43
28T. MeierR	0	1	1	+1	0	0.36	0	1	0	—	16:29
12P. MarleauC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	0	0	0	0	16:12
51R. SimekD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	14:32
68M. KarlssonC	0	0	0	0	4	0.41	0	1	0	0	13:57
11S. NoesenR	0	0	0	0	2	0.25	1	0	0	—	12:58
70A. TrueC	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	4	1	0	60	12:52
38M. FerraroD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.08	1	2	0	—	12:43
7D. GambrellC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.12	0	0	0	57	11:18
20M. SorensenL	0	0	0	+1	2	0.08	1	0	0	—	10:52
84M. LetunovC	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	0	0	0	50	10:17

San Jose Sharks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30A. Dell(W)	31	30	1	.968	2.38	+1.38	60:00

Season series

SJS leads 2-1

Oct 131@3Final
Feb 43@1this game
Feb 106@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames

2nd period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score