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St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV FS-MW, SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the St. Louis Blues 4-2. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Leon Draisaitl's goal at 4:13 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 2.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were STL 32, EDM 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 1.3 goals below expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 30 of 32 (.938). Three stars: 1. Leon Draisaitl (2 G), 2. Adam Larsson, 3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (2 A).

Three stars

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL03114115232
EDMEDM21308214435

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    slapxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:31
  2. EDM
    snapxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    5:48

2nd period

  1. STL
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    10:57

3rd period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.23win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    2:12
  2. EDM
    wristxG 0.13win prob +26 pts
    2-3
    4:13
  3. EDM
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.76win prob +10 pts
    2-4
    18:19

Penalties

STL 2 PIM·EDM 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:11EDMDarnell Nurse · Holdingdrawn by Alexander Steen2 min

2nd

  • 1:50STLCarl Gunnarsson · Holdingdrawn by Riley Sheahan2 min
  • 6:07EDMOscar Klefbom · Hookingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

3rd

  • 17:00EDMAlex Chiasson · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalSTL goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl, 3rd 4:13 — EDM 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Archibald · Goal · xG 0.76R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.15L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.13S. Gagner · Missed · xG 0.12A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.11L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.11L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.10R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Kassian · Missed · xG 0.10Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.10K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.08L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.06L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.05J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.05J. Archibald · Missed · xG 0.04C. Jones · Goal · xG 0.03C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.03A. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.03S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gagner · Missed · xG 0.03D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.02M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.02O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.01L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.01R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01C. Jones · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sheahan · Missed · xG 0.01R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.01A. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.00R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.00E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.00L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.00R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.00C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.00O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM4 G · 2.5 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsEDM
2.12 G
All situations
3 G2.5
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL57%43%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.06 – 1.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsEDM
32
Shots on goal
35
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
35
Hits
22
23
Blocked shots
21
10
Giveaways
14
1
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27A. PietrangeloD011-240.16130—23:46
72J. FaulkD000020.17100—23:04
57D. PerronL101060.36000—21:22
19J. BouwmeesterD000-200.04120—20:49
55C. ParaykoD000-140.13220—20:38
10B. SchennC000-130.364205820:11
90R. O'ReillyC000020.110006420:10
17J. SchwartzL000-130.09100—19:03
12Z. SanfordL011+100.01720—16:24
21T. BozakC011020.141103116:09
18R. ThomasC101-220.300102016:01
29V. DunnD000+110.01110—15:57
20A. SteenL000010.06130—14:43
4C. GunnarssonD000+100.00432—11:54
9S. BlaisL000-110.00630—11:47
33J. KyrouR000-100.02100—09:29
61J. de la RoseL000-200.00200—09:10
49I. BarbashevL000-110.092004008:42
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Allen(L)34313.9121.73-1.2758:22

Season series

STL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).