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Canadiens at Lightning
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
4
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV SUN, SNE·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Montréal Canadiens 5-4. The Lightning came back from two goals down. The Lightning led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mitchell Stephens's goal at 4:56 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals were close — MTL 3.2, TBL 3.2; shots on goal were MTL 43, TBL 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Carey Price stopped 25 of 30 (.833), 1.8 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 39 of 43 (.907), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Victor Hedman (4 A), 2. Alex Killorn (2 G, 1 A), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    V. Hedman4 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Killorn2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL220110113443
TBLTBL110310110530

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. MTL
    J. Kotkaniemi(4)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:08
  2. MTL
    M. Domi(10)
    N. Suzuki (13), J. Petry (17)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    10:00
  3. TBL
    A. Killorn(12)
    R. McDonagh (9), S. Stamkos (20)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    19:01

2nd period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(14)
    V. Hedman (24), A. Killorn (18)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    1:34
  2. TBL
    M. Stephens(1)
    V. Hedman (25), A. Vasilevskiy (3)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    2-3
    4:56
  3. TBL
    A. Killorn(13)
    A. Cirelli (16), V. Hedman (26)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
    2-4
    12:00
  4. MTL
    B. Chiarot(5)
    B. Gallagher (16), P. Danault (20)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    12:13

3rd period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(8)
    V. Hedman (27)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    3-5
    0:55
  2. MTL
    J. Weal(4)PPG
    T. Tatar (18), B. Gallagher (17)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +5 pts
    4-5
    18:32

Penalties

MTL 2 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

2nd

  • 14:26MTLNate Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min

3rd

  • 9:37TBLMathieu Joseph · Boardingdrawn by Cale Fleury2 min
  • 16:48TBLPatrick Maroon · High stickingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalMTL goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Mitchell Stephens, 2nd 4:56 — TBL 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.32S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.17S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.16M. Stephens · On goal · xG 0.15A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.15N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.15V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.13B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.11V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.11J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.11Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.10Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.10J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.09M. Stephens · On goal · xG 0.08M. Stephens · Goal · xG 0.08A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.07A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.05Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.04T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04M. Stephens · Missed · xG 0.04K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.03K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.03M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL5 G · 3.2 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsTBL
3.24 G
All situations
5 G3.2
2.53 G
Even strength
5 G2.9
0.71 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL50%50%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.17 – 3.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsTBL
43
Shots on goal
30
61%
Faceoffs
39%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
24
13
Blocked shots
13
5
Giveaways
6
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6S. WeberD000-150.23310—24:47
26J. PetryD011-260.37030—24:26
8B. ChiarotD101020.25310—23:32
24P. DanaultC011030.250107122:11
11B. GallagherR022050.3600010021:58
90T. TatarL011020.01200—20:53
17B. KulakD000-220.04120—18:00
13M. DomiC101-320.190007517:13
14N. SuzukiC011-310.100005716:34
62A. LehkonenL000-320.22010—14:24
43J. WealC101+140.430205013:59
21N. CousinsC000+110.01100013:43
15J. KotkaniemiC101+130.290002513:42
20C. FleuryD000+110.02110—13:18
53V. MeteD000010.05100—12:29
25R. PoehlingC000020.31110010:34
45R. BarberR000000.00200—09:14
44N. ThompsonC000010.070025008:52
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31C. Price(L)30255.8333.21-1.7958:03

Season series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).