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St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets

Final/OTTV FS-MW, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-4 in overtime, David Perron scoring at 3:14. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was David Perron's goal at 3:14 of overtime, which took the Blues' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — STL 3.3, WPG 3.1; shots on goal were STL 35, WPG 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 0.9 goals below expected; Connor Hellebuyck stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Bozak (2 G), 2. Kyle Connor (2 G), 3. Jaden Schwartz (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    T. Bozak2 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    K. Connor2 G
  3. ★★★
    STL
    J. Schwartz3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
STLSTL1521511015535
WPGWPG1121721000429

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:10
  2. WPG
    slapxG 0.07win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    19:14

2nd period

  1. STL
    slapxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    5:30
  2. WPG
    wristxG 0.22win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    9:37
  3. STL
    T. Bozak(6)PPG
    wristxG 0.23win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    16:08

3rd period

  1. WPG
    K. Connor(17)PPG
    wristxG 0.20win prob +22 pts
    3-3
    3:12
  2. STL
    slapxG 0.12win prob +28 pts
    4-3
    5:10
  3. WPG
    N. Ehlers (14), P. Laine (23)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +44 pts
    4-4
    18:46

Overtime

  1. STL
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.37win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    3:14

Penalties

STL 8 PIM·WPG 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:16STLserved by D. Perron · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 6:42WPGTucker Poolman · Holdingdrawn by Mackenzie MacEachern2 min
  • 15:07WPGMark Scheifele · Hookingdrawn by Oskar Sundqvist2 min
  • 17:31STLRobert Thomas · Holdingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min

3rd

  • 2:26STLVince Dunn · Slashingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 15:36STLJustin Faulk · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min
  • 15:36WPGMark Scheifele · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Justin Faulk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalSTL goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: David Perron, OT 3:14 — STL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.22M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.21K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.21K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.20N. Pionk · Missed · xG 0.19M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.18N. Shore · On goal · xG 0.17B. Wheeler · Goal · xG 0.16M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.15M. Appleton · On goal · xG 0.13K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.11N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.10N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.09P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.08M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.07G. Bourque · Goal · xG 0.07M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.06B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.06P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.06P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.05B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.05P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.04N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.04N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.03M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.02P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.02G. Bourque · Missed · xG 0.02B. Wheeler · Missed · xG 0.02M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.02N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.02B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.02T. Poolman · On goal · xG 0.02L. Sbisa · On goal · xG 0.01N. Pionk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.01M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.01P. Laine · On goal · xG 0.01N. Shore · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG4 G · 3.1 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsWPG
3.35 G
All situations
4 G3.1
2.64 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.71 G
Power play
1 G1.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL53%47%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.26 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsWPG
35
Shots on goal
29
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/2
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
23
13
Blocked shots
10
8
Giveaways
14
7
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27A. PietrangeloD112+350.20030—29:14
90R. O'ReillyC000+110.090106124:14
55C. ParaykoD000-320.17030—23:07
72J. FaulkD101+340.31202—22:27
57D. PerronL112+120.58210—20:37
10B. SchennC022030.352003020:29
19J. BouwmeesterD000-210.02000—20:00
70O. SundqvistC000-120.2511010019:02
17J. SchwartzL033+120.1801010018:24
49I. BarbashevL000-110.09400—14:23
29V. DunnD000010.07102—14:17
20A. SteenL000-110.17010—12:54
21T. BozakC202+150.620007512:31
41R. BortuzzoD000010.04020—11:46
18R. ThomasC011+120.11002010:45
33J. KyrouR000+100.00000—10:19
61J. de la RoseL000-110.004004009:23
28M. MacEachernL000010.01100—09:13
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(W)29254.8623.13-0.8763:14

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).