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Stars at Predators
NHL

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸4
Nashville Predators
1
FinalTV FS-SW+, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Nashville Predators 4-1. The Predators scored first; the Stars answered. The Stars led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roope Hintz's goal at 6:40 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.6 to 1.5; shots on goal were DAL 22, NSH 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 37 of 38 (.974), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 18 of 22 (.818), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Blake Comeau (1 G), 2. Alexander Radulov (2 A), 3. Anton Khudobin (37 saves, .974).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    B. Comeau1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    A. Radulov2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    A. Khudobin37 saves, .974

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL0114803422
NSHNSH09113016138

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    A. Watson(5)
    D. Hamhuis (4)
    deflectedxG 0.21win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    1:04
  2. DAL
    B. Comeau(4)SHG
    J. Dickinson (6), E. Lindell (8)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 pts
    1-1
    4:46
  3. DAL
    R. Hintz(12)
    J. Dowling (2), A. Radulov (11)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    6:40
  4. DAL
    J. Oleksiak(1)
    A. Radulov (12), T. Seguin (19)
    backhandxG 0.21win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    12:18
  5. DAL
    A. Cogliano(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.17win prob +9 pts
    4-1
    16:09

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:49NSHCraig Smith · High stickingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
  • 14:46NSHMatt Irwin · Slashingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min

2nd

  • 3:33DALAndrew Cogliano · Illegal check to headdrawn by Matt Irwin2 min

3rd

  • 10:40DALAndrew Cogliano · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Pekka Rinne2 min
  • 16:08DALJamie Oleksiak · Interferencedrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDAL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Roope Hintz, 2nd 6:40 — DAL 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.21A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.17R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.16M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.15K. Turris · Missed · xG 0.15M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.14F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.12K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.12K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.10N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.09R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.06C. Blackwell · Missed · xG 0.06C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.05C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.05R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Weber · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.01K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Weber · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.00F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.00D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.00Y. Weber · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH1 G · 2.6 xG · 57 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsNSH
1.54 G
All situations
1 G2.6
1.13 G
Even strength
1 G1.9
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.11 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL27%73%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.44 – 2.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsNSH
22
Shots on goal
38
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
23
23
Blocked shots
7
8
Giveaways
7
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD000040.12030—21:57
23E. LindellD011+100.00030—21:56
3J. KlingbergD000+210.02040—21:36
5A. SekeraD000+120.03140—18:58
15B. ComeauL101+130.120107517:46
91T. SeguinC011+120.071004517:45
14J. BennL000030.191005317:10
45R. PolakD000+100.01120—16:54
16J. PavelskiC000010.080104015:40
24R. HintzC101+210.091206015:36
12R. FaksaC000+110.072103815:35
2J. OleksiakD101+110.21112—15:03
11A. CoglianoC101+120.31114014:32
47A. RadulovR022+200.00100—14:11
18J. DickinsonC011010.062002514:05
10C. PerryR000-100.07100—12:47
37J. DowlingC011+100.0010010012:29
34D. GurianovR000000.02100—10:00
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35A. Khudobin(W)38371.9742.63+1.6360:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).