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Islanders at Lightning
NHL

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸5
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
FinalTV ESPN+, MSG+·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 5-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ross Johnston's goal at 6:44 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.9 to 2.0; shots on goal were NYI 24, TBL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Curtis McElhinney stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brock Nelson (2 G), 2. Semyon Varlamov (31 saves, .969), 3. Kevin Shattenkirk (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    B. Nelson2 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    S. Varlamov31 saves, .969
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    K. Shattenkirk1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI082838524
TBLTBL09112011132

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. NYI
    R. Johnston(2)
    R. Pulock (11)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +18 pts
    1-0
    6:44
  2. NYI
    J. Bailey(8)SHG
    C. Cizikas (4)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    8:37
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(10)
    K. Shattenkirk (17), A. Cirelli (14)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    15:35

3rd period

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(10)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.27win prob +16 pts
    3-1
    7:31
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(11)
    A. Lee (8), J. Eberle (7)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +2 pts
    4-1
    14:41
  3. NYI
    A. Lee(8)PPG
    J. Bailey (13), M. Barzal (14)
    tip-inxG 0.09
    5-1
    16:05

Penalties

NYI 10 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 7:17NYIAdam Pelech · Trippingdrawn by Mitchell Stephens2 min
  • 17:09NYICal Clutterbuck · Roughingdrawn by Cory Conacher2 min
  • 17:09TBLCory Conacher · Roughingdrawn by Cal Clutterbuck2 min

2nd

  • 7:30NYIScott Mayfield · Cross checkingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 7:30TBLCedric Paquette · Roughingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 7:30NYIScott Mayfield · Roughingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min
  • 11:42TBLKevin Shattenkirk · Slashingdrawn by Anthony Beauvillier2 min

3rd

  • 0:43NYIMichael Dal Colle · Hookingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 15:13TBLMikhail Sergachev · Cross checkingdrawn by Matt Martin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNYI goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Ross Johnston, 2nd 6:44 — NYI 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.26B. Point · On goal · xG 0.16S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.11B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.10C. Conacher · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.09L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.09A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.09A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.08C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07C. Conacher · Missed · xG 0.07C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.07O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.07O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.07O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.07C. Paquette · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.06A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.05M. Stephens · Missed · xG 0.05V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.05C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.04P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.04C. Conacher · On goal · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.04C. Conacher · Missed · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.03V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02K. Shattenkirk · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01L. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.01A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.00L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.00S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.00L. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL1 G · 2.9 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsTBL
2.05 G
All situations
1 G2.9
1.53 G
Even strength
1 G2.3
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI33%67%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.96 – 2.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsTBL
24
Shots on goal
32
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/2
Power play
0/3
10
Penalty minutes
8
22
Hits
22
18
Blocked shots
11
4
Giveaways
6
11
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. ToewsD000+110.06110—24:45
3A. PelechD000+130.05012—23:36
6R. PulockD011+110.08010—20:52
24S. MayfieldD000000.00034—20:34
12J. BaileyR112+220.360103319:20
13M. BarzalC011+120.090005019:07
29B. NelsonC202+250.532202718:53
55J. BoychukD000+120.03130—18:04
15C. ClutterbuckR000000.00302—15:49
18A. BeauvillierR000+110.11010—14:34
7J. EberleR011000.00020—14:31
27A. LeeL112030.264005014:25
53C. CizikasC011+110.123105413:44
32R. JohnstonL101+120.15200—12:13
17M. MartinL000010.10400—11:58
10D. BrassardC000000.040006010:18
28M. Dal ColleL000000.00102—09:43
8N. DobsonD000+200.00120—09:34
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)32311.9692.89+1.8960:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).