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Senators at Sabres
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres

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Ottawa Senators
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Ottawa Senators 5-2. The Senators scored first; the Sabres answered. The Sabres led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 8:26 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.9 to 0.9; shots on goal were OTT 23, BUF 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 85% of the time. Joey Daccord stopped 35 of 40 (.875), 2.1 goals below expected; Carter Hutton stopped 21 of 23 (.913), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jack Eichel (1 G, 2 A), 2. Victor Olofsson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jason Pominville (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Eichel1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    V. Olofsson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Pominville1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT2120506223
BUFBUF112212216540

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    A. Duclair(19)
    C. Ceci (19), R. Balcers (9)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:03
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(2)PPG
    R. Dahlin (34), J. Eichel (51)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    8:40
  3. OTT
    J. Pageau(4)
    M. Boedker (28), M. Veronneau (2)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    9:10

2nd period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(14)PPG
    C. Sheary (20), R. Ristolainen (36)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    6:12
  2. BUF
    S. Reinhart(21)
    J. Eichel (52)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    8:26

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(28)
    V. Olofsson (2), S. Reinhart (43)
    wristxG 0.48win prob +12 pts
    2-4
    11:06
  2. BUF
    J. Pominville(16)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.01win prob +3 pts
    2-5
    12:57

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·BUF 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:02OTTRudolfs Balcers · Hookingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 13:22BUFBrandon Montour · High stickingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

2nd

  • 2:28BUFJeff Skinner · Cross checkingdrawn by Rudolfs Balcers2 min
  • 4:52OTTDylan DeMelo · Hookingdrawn by Conor Sheary2 min
  • 11:50BUFJack Eichel · Interferencedrawn by Dylan DeMelo2 min
  • 15:35OTTThomas Chabot · Trippingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 15:55BUFSam Reinhart · Trippingdrawn by Andreas Englund2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalOTT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, 2nd 8:26 — BUF 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.48K. Okposo · Goal · xG 0.18S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.14C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.13V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.12V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.12C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.11Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.11J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.09S. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.09V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.09V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.06J. Pominville · On goal · xG 0.06J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.05K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.05C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.04J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.03J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.03J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.01L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pominville · Goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01L. Pilut · Missed · xG 0.01C. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.01L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.00R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.00S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.00R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 2.9 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsBUF
0.92 G
All situations
5 G2.9
0.82 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.10 G
Power play
2 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT15%85%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 0.88 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsBUF
23
Shots on goal
40
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/4
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
6
Hits
20
16
Blocked shots
7
15
Giveaways
7
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-120.07022—27:45
5C. CeciD011+120.01110—25:08
2D. DeMeloD000-100.04052—24:38
86C. WolaninD000+110.02010—21:26
7B. TkachukL000-110.050005019:10
44J. PageauC101+130.080306718:24
36C. WhiteC000-110.030007818:23
71C. TierneyC000-110.090003315:17
15Z. SmithC000010.122005015:05
24O. LindbergL000010.052104314:27
10A. DuclairL101+120.17110—14:22
17B. GibbonsC000-110.01010014:14
56M. PaajarviL000030.07000—13:38
89M. BoedkerL011+120.02000—12:56
39A. EnglundD000-110.01000—12:36
14M. VeronneauR011-100.02000—11:20
38R. BalcersL011-110.03002—11:07
83C. JarosD000-100.00010—06:06
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Daccord(L)40355.8752.85-2.1560:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).