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Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets

FinalTV FS-SW, TSN3·Bell MTS Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Esa Lindell's goal at 10:27 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 4.7 to 1.8; shots on goal were DAL 37, WPG 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Ben Bishop stopped 21 of 23 (.913); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Seguin (2 G), 2. Ben Bishop (21 saves, .913), 3. Kyle Connor (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    T. Seguin2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    B. Bishop21 saves, .913
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    K. Connor1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL01231728537
WPGWPG0801124223

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. DAL
    snapxG 0.01win prob +19 pts
    1-0
    10:27
  2. DAL
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    12:23
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(30)PPG
    J. Benn (25), A. Radulov (38)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +8 pts
    3-0
    15:16

3rd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(31)PPG
    snapxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
    4-0
    10:34
  2. WPG
    wristxG 0.16win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    11:03
  3. WPG
    P. Laine(30)PPG
    J. Trouba (38), K. Connor (30)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +2 pts
    4-2
    15:10
  4. DAL
    R. Faksa(15)EN
    wristxG 0.91
    5-2
    19:20

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·WPG 8 PIM

1st

  • 1:38DALBrett Ritchie · Roughingdrawn by Sami Niku2 min

2nd

  • 7:13WPGPatrik Laine · Hookingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min
  • 13:43WPGDmitry Kulikov · Holdingdrawn by Jason Dickinson2 min
  • 14:37WPGserved by M. Perreault · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 8:47WPGKyle Connor · Interferencedrawn by Alexander Radulov2 min
  • 14:16DALRadek Faksa · High stickingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalDAL goalFinal: WPG 0%

Biggest swing: Esa Lindell, 2nd 10:27 — DAL 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.19K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.16A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.16K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.15K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.14M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.11P. Laine · Goal · xG 0.11K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.09B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.09B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.05M. Perreault · Missed · xG 0.05B. Little · On goal · xG 0.05K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.05A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.04B. Wheeler · On goal · xG 0.04K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.03B. Little · On goal · xG 0.03M. Hendricks · Missed · xG 0.03P. Laine · Missed · xG 0.03B. Little · On goal · xG 0.03A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.03T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.02J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.02J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.02D. Kulikov · Missed · xG 0.02K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · On goal · xG 0.01M. Perreault · On goal · xG 0.01T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.01N. Beaulieu · Missed · xG 0.01A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.01B. Little · On goal · xG 0.01
WPG2 G · 1.8 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsWPG
4.74 G
All situations
2 G1.8
1.62 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
0.92 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL67%33%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.70 – 1.83

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsWPG
37
Shots on goal
23
47%
Faceoffs
53%
2/4
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
20
Hits
30
9
Blocked shots
20
16
Giveaways
17
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. KlingbergD000+130.18010—24:03
4M. HeiskanenD011040.11000—22:48
23E. LindellD101+340.04020—21:36
47A. RadulovR022+130.42000—20:23
91T. SeguinC202050.652004120:00
45R. PolakD000+100.00200—18:13
14J. BennL011000.0041010017:55
12R. FaksaC202+321.842025316:24
21B. LovejoyD000020.05020—16:03
24R. HintzC000020.350105815:39
16J. DickinsonC000-140.52000015:21
15B. ComeauL011+130.29500—15:05
13M. JanmarkC011010.05000013:47
37J. DowlingC000010.101005613:42
42T. FedunD000-100.03010—13:24
25B. RitchieR000030.12202—12:42
43V. NichushkinR011+100.00210—10:14
17A. CoglianoC011+100.00000009:47
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30B. Bishop(W)23212.9131.85-0.1560:00

Season series

DAL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).